Why Chris Bosh-Roy Hibbert Matchup Is Definitive X-Factor in Pacers-Heat Series
Everyone knew that the interplay between Chris Bosh and Roy Hibbert would go a long way toward determining the winner of the Eastern Conference finals series between the Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers, but nobody expected that narrative to play out as obviously as it did in Game 1 on May 22.
LeBron James converted two driving layups within the final 10 seconds of overtime, the second of which gave the Heat a shocking win at the buzzer. And as everyone immediately noted, Hibbert wasn’t on the floor to defend the rim on either of James’ point-blank finishes.
Pacers coach Frank Vogel admitted that his decision to leave Hibbert on the bench in those critical situations had everything to do with Bosh. Per ESPN’s Tom Haberstroh:
Vogel explained his controversial decision to go with a switching lineup with 2.2 seconds remaining in the game with the Heat down one, citing the Heat’s versatility and the potential for Chris Bosh making a long jumper to win the game.
There’s a certain logic to that thinking. But it also seems to overlook the notion that a Bosh jumper is dangerous, while a James layup is fatal.
Vogel has been catching hell from every angle for his decision to sit his best rim-protector when he needed him most. The numbers bore out how much of a layup deterrent Hibbert was in Game 1, as James attempted only three field goals inside of five feet in the 38 minutes in which Indiana’s big man was patrolling the paint.
In the nine minutes Hibbert rested, though, James fired up six shots from within that same distance.
There’s no getting around it: Hibbert would have had an effect on that final play.
But we’re not here to talk about what Vogel (who has done a masterful job all season long) should have done. We’re looking at the matchup between Bosh and Hibbert as it pertains to the future of this series. It’s just worth noting that Vogel‘s fear of Bosh—however misprioritized—was a key reason for the Heat’s series-opening win.
Speaking broadly, the conventional wisdom that says the Bosh-Hibbert matchup is critical goes roughly as follows:
Bosh spaces the floor with his unparalleled mid-range accuracy. No player in the league—regardless of position—shot it better from 16-23 feet than Bosh, who converted those shots at a 53 percent clip. Therefore, he’s got the ability to pull Hibbert away from the paint on defense.
Indiana’s entire defensive scheme is built around directing traffic toward Hibbert in the lane. But if he’s not there because he’s honoring Bosh’s deadly jumper, the well-oiled machine that is Indy’s D could conceivably grind to a halt.
At the same time, Hibbert‘s size and rebounding skill makes him a difficult cover for Bosh.
It’s all pretty basic, really; If Bosh hits jumpers, the Heat have an advantage. But if Hibbert dominates on the inside and Bosh doesn’t get hot, it’s the Pacers that have an edge.
For what it’s worth, Bosh himself mentioned that his matchup would be determinative of the series’ outcome. According to Joseph Goodman of The Miami Herald, Bosh said before the series began:
I’m going to have to have a big match up with Roy. I feel he is the X factor for them. I’m the X factor for this team. This is going to be, I think, the matchup that really turns the series.
What’s interesting is that even though everyone agrees that the center matchup is, in theory, a major one, nothing from the regular season contests between these two teams portrays that.
Bosh outplayed Hibbert in the three meetings between the Heat and Pacers this year, averaging 17 points per game on 58 percent shooting. Hibbert struggled with foul trouble and only managed 9.7 points and 8.0 rebounds per game on 38 percent shooting. What’s more, Bosh actually blocked more shots per game (1.7) than Hibbert (0.7) in the series.
And yet the Pacers took two out of three from the Heat in the regular season. Weird, right?
Even though the small sample of regular-season games doesn’t necessarily corroborate the conventional wisdom on the significance of the Hibbert-Bosh matchup, we learned in Game 1 that it really is one of the series’ biggest keys.
Going forward, it’ll be fascinating to watch how both teams adjust.
According to Mike Wells of the Indianapolis Star, Vogel has said he’ll “probably” have Hibbert in the game if a situation like the one that led to James’ game-winning layup arises again.
If that happens, though, we’re kind of right back where we started: with Bosh presenting a unique perimeter option that Hibbert might struggle to contain.
In Game 1, the two big men both played to something approximating a draw. Bosh had 17 points on just 11 shots and registered a pair of blocks. Hibbert defended the rim, scored 19 points and blocked a pair of shots himself. But the matchup swung in favor of Bosh and the Heat in the final seconds.
As it turns out, the matchup between Hibbert and Bosh really has proved to be as important as advertised. But as James’ game-winner showed, its greatest significance lies not in the one-on-one battle between the two centers, but in the way their very different skill sets affect the strategy of both teams as a whole.
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Hill could be out for rest of series
Indiana Pacers point guard George Hill missed last night’s Game 5 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against the New York Knicks because of a concussion. Prior to the game Hill, who scored 26 points in the Pacers’ Game 4 win, showed concussion-like symptoms and failed to pass the NBA’s concussion tests. Pacers point guard George Hill missed last night’s Game 5 with a concussion and could be out longer. (Photo by Ron Hoskins/NBAE via Getty Images) Back-up D.J. Augustin started at the point in Hill’s absence, going a respectable 3-for-7 from behind the arc and scoring 12 points in Indiana’s 85-75 loss to New York. Twelve points, while four points short of Hill’s playoff average, isn’t bad. Here’s what is bad: Augustin didn’t register a single assist in 39 minutes last night, and moving Augustin to the starting lineup depletes a Pacers’ bench that was already lacking. When Augustin is on the bench, the Pacers have the choice of either moving Lance Stephenson to the point or bringing…
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What We Learned About OKC Thunder from Their 2nd-Round Playoff Series
The Oklahoma City Thunder have lost to the Memphis Grizzlies, 4-1, and will not advance to the Western Conference Finals this season. Projected to compete with the Miami Heat for the NBA Championship at the beginning of the season, OKC traded superstar sixth man James Harden to the Houston Rockets and had to play in a much more difficult conference in order to try to take the crown from King James and Co.
The Thunder lost to another team that traded away its superstar—Rudy Gay was dealt to the Toronto Raptors in the middle of the season—but they also had to play without a cornerstone player, Russell Westbrook, who got injured in Game 2 against the Rockets.
Fortunately for basketball fans in Oklahoma City, the Thunder are one of the youngest teams in the league and will have other chances, but this one still hurts…
Fans are going to be left wondering: What if we had Harden?
Harden began the year in “Eff You” mode, dropping 37 and 45 points, respectively, in his first two games for the Rockets. Oklahoma City got to see him up close in its first-round series, when it dispatched Houston in six games.
Mr. Harden had a few tricks up his sleeve beard, dropping 30 points in three of the six games and scoring at least 20 points in five of the games. He only tallied 15 in Game 4 but got the last laugh with a 105-103 win.
The team obviously did not expect Westbrook, who never misses a game, to get injured when it shipped Harden to Texas, but he is more talented than what it has now. Kevin Martin, 29, will never be the impact player Harden is, and it’s uncertain how good Reggie Jackson, 22, will end up being.
It’s nothing to lose sleep over; what’s done is done, but this is going to haunt Thunder fans after the early exit.
How do you win after a big trade? Just ask Memphis.
“Yeah I’m still up on my grizzly, Mike Conley. That was just a preview, cause they got nothing on we.”—”Handclaps & Guitars,” Chiddy Bang.
The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the best-run organizations and a model franchise for small-market teams. They knew that Gay was due for a windfall, and there was no way that a professional basketball team in Memphis was able to afford to blow through the luxury tax to keep its superstar player.
When the Grizzlies dealt Gay to Toronto, they knew that somebody had to step up to replace his production.
Marc Gasol may be establishing himself as the Alpha Gasol in the NBA (sorry Pau!) and Zach Randolph has been playing motivated (like he’s being chased by a cat), but it is Mike Conley who has really stepped up for the Grizz.
Zach Lowe broke it down in his recent Grantland profile of the Memphis point guard:
The biggest difference between Conley and Gay — and Gasol and Gay — is that Conley’s shot-hunting grows organically from within Memphis’s offense. Gay’s shot-hunting largely existed outside of that offense, or ground it to a halt. Most of Conley’s scoring chances come via the pick-and-roll, which means that if a Conley scoring pursuit goes nowhere, there is a natural pass available — one that keeps all the screening and cutting gears turning.
The Grizzlies are benefiting from smart management: They were able to let their star go because another one would thrive in their offense.
Oklahoma City needs to do the same thing with Durant.
OKC must take advantage of Durant’s efficiency.
Durant looks at so many shot charts, you’d think he was playing Battleship. He is so focused on efficiency; John Hollinger should describe his motor as “hybrid.” Lee Jenkins of Sports Illustrated reports that he has hired his own analytics expert and has found his “hot spots” on the court:
[Justin] Zormelo sits in section 104 of Oklahoma City’s Chesapeake Energy Arena, with an iPad that tells him in real time what percentage Durant is shooting from the left corner and how many points per possession he is generating on post-ups. After games, he takes the iPad to Durant’s house or hotel room and they watch clips of every play.
He will find spaces where he struggles to score and work on the shot in practice. If he finds that he is unable to score from a certain place, he will simply avoid taking that shot. He has even gone so far as eschewing buzzer-beaters during the regular season.
Durant scored at least 25 points in every game during the postseason, but he underperformed because he was forced to take shots he was uncomfortable taking in an effort to replace the production lost when Westbrook got injured.
With a healthy Westbrook, this offense should once again cater to Durant’s strength and allow him to adhere his own green movement.
Conclusion
Durant needs Westbrook. That’s the bottom line.
The former isn’t going anywhere, and the latter is known as one of the most reliable players in the league. The two should be able to challenge LeBron and the Heat in the future; it’s just not going to happen this year.
For the time being, fans need to forget about Harden. The team should take a couple of notes on Memphis, a fellow small-market team that appears to have things figured out.
Tom Schreier covers the Northwest Division for Bleacher Report and writes for TheFanManifesto.com. Visit his Kinja blog to see his previous work.
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Golden State Warriors Still Believe They’ll Take Series vs. San Antonio Spurs
Bleacher Report caught up with the Golden State Warriors after their Game 5 road loss to the San Antonio Spurs.
What does Mark Jackson have to say? What do the players think about the loss? Does the team still believe they can win this series?
Watch the video above to find out!
Questions? Comments? Hit us up in the comments below!
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Smith takes blame for Pacers series
New York Knicks guard J.R. Smith says blame him for the team being down 3-1 in their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Indiana Pacers. “I take the blame for this whole series,” Smith said, via ESPNNewYork.com, after shooting 7-for-22 in the
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Pacers rout Knicks 93-82 to take 3-1 series lead (Yahoo! Sports)
INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — George Hill scored 26 points and Paul George added 18 points and 14 rebounds Tuesday night, leading the Indiana Pacers to a 93-82 victory over the New York Knicks and a 3-1 lead in the second-round series.
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Derrick Rose’s Return Wouldn’t Have Altered Course of Bulls vs. Heat Series
Derrick Rose wasn’t going to save the Chicago Bulls from the steamroller known as the Miami Heat. Even an MVP-caliber player like the Bulls point guard can’t be expected to return from a year on the sidelines to shine against the NBA’s best team.
Talk about Rose making his triumphant comeback, a cloud hanging over the team for months, reached a fever pitch after the Bulls won Game 1 in Miami. But it didn’t happen. He’s remained out of action while the team proceeded to lose three straight games, two in blowout fashion.
Aggrey Sam of CSN Chicago reported before Game 4 a decision was already made that Rose wouldn’t return in the second-round series.
Despite erroneous reports that he was set to dress for Game 3, according to a person with knowledge of the situation, the former league MVP won’t return to the court in the series, something Thibodeau is aware of.
However, at the outset of the second round, Rose did strongly consider coming back, but ultimately decided against it, another source said.
It was the right decision. Only Rose understands his body, which explains why he hasn’t played a single minute despite reports he was medically cleared to return in early March (via ESPN).
If Rose believes he’s not ready to play, nobody can tell him otherwise. Playing without complete confidence his knee would hold up would be a major mistake. And the last thing he needs after being cautious throughout the process is a setback.
Those relentlessly on his case about not playing should realize the chances of the Bulls upsetting the Heat were microscopic, even if Rose returned.
Real life isn’t like a video game. Just because Rose is medically considered “healthy” doesn’t mean he would step onto the court in top form. He would be just beginning to process of getting back to an elite level and that’s going to take time, whenever it happens.
Furthermore, trying to start that comeback in the middle of a playoff series would be an incredibly difficult task against any team, let alone the defending champion Heat.
Add in the fact the Bulls are already working without Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich, who are both listed as questionable for Game 5, and Chicago was doomed from the outset barring a miracle.
Their win in Game 1 was a wake-up call the Heat clearly received. They have been dominant ever since, and returning Rose wouldn’t have changed the direction of the series.
If he decided to play, the Heat would have put relentless defensive pressure on him for every second he was on the court to test the knee. That’s not an ideal scenario for somebody who’s clearly still waiting for the confidence tank to refill.
There’s absolutely no reason to bring him back for Game 5 or beyond. The best decision throughout the process has been waiting until next season and that hasn’t changed.
With a completely healthy roster and a supremely confident Rose, the Bulls would have a chance to give the Heat a serious run. Winning Game 1 with what amounts to depth and role players showed the secondary talent on the roster, but it was never going to hold up over a seven-game series.
Adding Rose to the squad wouldn’t have changed anything.
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Grizzlies beat Thunder in OT for 3-1 series lead (Yahoo! Sports)
MEMPHIS, Tenn. (AP) — The Grizzlies pulled off a huge rally to move within a victory of the franchise’s first Western Conference final.
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James, Heat beat Bulls 88-65 for 3-1 series lead (Yahoo! Sports)
CHICAGO (AP) — LeBron James and the Miami Heat didn’t even give the Chicago Bulls room to breathe, practically squeezing the playoff life out of them to take a commanding lead in their Eastern Conference semifinal.
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Kevin Durant needs Thunderous performance to tie series
via Espn
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the projected frontrunners for the Western Conference title since the start of the season. They have not disappointed, finishing as the best in the West. They were expected to breeze through their first and second round rivals, but that all changed when Russell Westbrook was lost for the season. The resiliency of the entire Thunder team will be tested, and Kevin Durant’s offensive prowess will be pushed to its limits, and maybe beyond.
per Espn
Kevin Durant has done more of everything for the Oklahoma City Thunder since Russell Westbrook was lost for the rest of the season with a knee injury after Game 2 of the Thunder’s first round series against the Houston Rockets.
He’s shot more, played more, scored more and facilitated more.
But with the Thunder backed up against another wall, trailing the Grizzlies 2-1 heading into Monday night’s Game 4 in Memphis, Durant vowed there was still more to come.
“I can do a lot more. There’s always …
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