How the Andrew Wiggins Runner-Up Schools Will Cope Without No. 1 Recruit
Bill Self has to be having a blast right now figuring out how he’s going to build his team around Andrew Wiggins next season.
Life is not as fun for the three coaches who were waiting to see if they would have the luxury of coaching Wiggins. It’s too late to bring in another player, so each team will have to stick with what they have. For one school, there’s plenty of talent in that spot already in place. For the other two, they’ll be relying on less attractive options.
So who are the lucky saps who get the privilege of spending time in a position where fans will only be thinking of Wiggins?
Here’s a look at those fellas and how each team will cope without the Canadian star.
Wiggins Was the Missing Piece for North Carolina
More than any of the three fanbases, the Tar Heels could spend next season thinking “what if…”
Wiggins was the one piece that Roy Williams was missing to make the Heels a title contender after they lost Reggie Bullock to the NBA. (I imagine Williams dropped a lot of “gosh darns” on Tuesday.)
Wiggins would have given UNC a great combination on the wing paired with P.J. Hairston. A year ago, the Heels turned their season around when Williams gave in to what everyone wanted, going small and moving Hairston to the 4 spot.
Next season, Hairston will move back to the perimeter because Williams has a lot of depth inside and not much on the perimeter.
The player who will fill Bullock’s shoes instead of Wiggins is senior Leslie McDonald. McDonald is a nice player that averaged 7.2 points in 17.7 minutes per game last year and has a good stroke from deep.
What the Heels are missing is a slasher, which is the role Wiggins would have filled. McDonald rarely drives—only 14 percent of his shots came at the rim last year, according to HoopMath.com—and when he does shoot inside the arc, he’s not very effective (35.4 percent compared to 35.9 percent outside).
That puts a lot of pressure on point guard Marcus Paige to create off the dribble.
Wiggins would have also allowed Williams to play with the small lineup. Now he is going to have to stick to a more traditional look.
The Heels need to get more production from their post players next year, and that would have been the case with or without Wiggins. But with him, they could have survived on the nights when James Michael McAdoo was having an off game.
Kentucky Doesn’t Need a Contingency Plan
As it is, Kentucky is going to have four McDonald’s All-Americans come off the bench this season. If Wiggins had come to UK, it would have been five.
Alex Poythress and James Young won’t mind seeing Wiggins go to Kansas. Those two will compete for the starting 3 spot. Poythress can also play the 4, but it’s already pretty crowded in the post as Willie Cauley-Stein, Julius Randle, Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee and Kyle Wiltjer will all be sharing minutes.
What Wiggins would have allowed John Calipari to do was play really big. When Aaron Harrison went to the bench, Calipari could have pushed Wiggins to the 2 and played either Poythress or James Young at the 3. But Calipari can still play a really big lineup with James Young sliding over to the 2 spot.
Calipari is already going to have to get creative with his lineups and rotations. Obviously, he’ll take all the talent he can get, but he has two future pros at the 3 spot. Simply put, the ‘Cats are going to be just fine.
Seminoles Will Be Searching for Identity
Last season was the first since 2008 that Florida State had not ranked in the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com. The Seminoles ranked 165th.
Leonard Hamilton has built his program on defense, and Wiggins, similar to Marcus Smart at Oklahoma State, could have rubbed off on his teammates with his effort and ability on the defensive end.
Florida State graduated Michael Snaer and will also be looking for a star to replace him. Wiggins would have filled that role.
The other area where Florida State really struggled a year ago was on the defensive glass: opponents grabbed 36.6 percent of their misses last season. FSU‘s best rebounder, Terrance Shannon, transferred to VCU, and the Seminoles would have benefitted greatly from having Wiggins in the paint.
What’s left for the Seminoles is a team that could still improve from an 18-16 season if Canadian guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes fills the shoes of Snaer. Wiggins and Rathan-Mayes, who are good friends, would have made a nice combination on the wing.
Instead, either Aaron Thomas or Montay Brandon will fill that spot. Both had their turns starting last year. Thomas averaged 6.0 points per game and Brandon averaged 3.9, but he did score 10 points on 5-of-6 shooting in FSU’s last game against Louisiana Tech.
If one of those players takes a big leap as a sophomore and Okaro White, the leading returning scorer, has a big senior year, the Seminoles could be improved. No, they should be improved.
Wiggins would have guaranteed that, but Hamilton still has some nice pieces to build around.
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Andrew Wiggins to Kansas: What the No. 1 Recruit Brings to the Jayhawks
The most hyped high school basketball prospect since LeBron James has finally landed.
As first reported by Grant Traylor of The Herald-Dispatch of Huntington, W.Va., all-everything forward Andrew Wiggins is set sign his letter of intent to attend Kansas:
A 5-star recruit from Canada, Wiggins’ decision has been a long time coming. The four schools in competition for the 18-year-old forward—North Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas and Florida State—had long been named prior to Tuesday’s decision. The ultimate destination, though, remained a mystery for far longer than anyone expected.
Whereas most top prospects committed in April at the latest, the Huntington Prep star waited until the last possible minute to make his decision. May 15 was the last date prospects from the Class of 2013 could sign a letter of intent, with filing for scholarship papers being the less-discussed secondary option.
It’s been a process that has infuriated some and captivated others. But more than anything, this prolonged period has given even the most casual fan an opportunity to get to know Wiggins—or at least his public facsimile.
He’s the son of Mitchell Wiggins, a former NBA player, and former Olympic silver medalist Marita Payne—both of whom attended Florida State. Once a member of the Class of 2014, Wiggins reclassified in October 2012 and instantly replaced soon-to-be Duke forward Jabari Parker as this year’s top player.
We’ve all read about Wiggins and his enormous talents, and with the way recruiting has become a never-ending string of effusive praise being thrown his way, we know that he has the rare talents to become a basketball superstar.
Yet we’re also cognizant that creating hype is easy. Anyone else remember when Harrison Barnes was the next Kobe Bryant or Tracy McGrady? Or when Sebastian Telfair was walking Through the Fire to revolutionize the point guard position?
Well, yeah…sorry about that.
So to say our hype machine regarding top prospects is a little on the fritz is putting it mildly. We too often speak in loud, boisterous hyperbole, casting unrealistic expectations on human beings just celebrating their 18th birthdays.
Is that realistic? Of course not—LeBron James is one of the 10 or 12 greatest players to ever lace up a pair of basketball shoes. To compare someone like Wiggins to someone like James right now is to compare a promising freshman psych major to Sigmund Freud. And that’s all without mentioning James and Wiggins have far different skill sets, other than both players’ propensity for jaw-dropping dunks.
But those who take the time to watch film of Wiggins will see—possibly for the first time since James—that Kansas has landed a prep star wholly worthy of his prodigious hype.
Standing 6’8″ and weighing 195 pounds, Wiggins’ long-term position remains in flux. Most have him pegged rightfully as a small forward for now, but he’s about the same size as Golden State Warriors shooting guard Klay Thompson. This isn’t a young man who will necessarily fit into a boxed position (though one should expect Bill Self to play him mostly at the 3).
And perhaps that’s what makes him most impressive at first glance. At Huntington Prep, Wiggins played all over the floor and showed the ability to guard wing players and power forwards in a pinch. He’s a surprisingly strong rebounder, having averaged 11.2 rebounds to go along with his nightly 23.4 points.
Already having mastered using his athleticism to surprise offensive players, Wiggins’ ability to block shots from behind opponents is impressive as well.
Admittedly, we’re burying the premise here. Wiggins’ biggest calling card is his mammoth potential—the type you see only once in a generation. He’s already an NBA-level athlete, throwing down in-game dunks that would have won this year’s NBA dunk contest.
The athleticism factor is only matched by his underrated shot-making. Wiggins can stretch out beyond the three-point line or slash to the rim with captivating ease, all while doing so efficiently. He’s so good, so near complete at this point that CBS Sports’ Jeff Goodman says he’s further along than Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin and Kevin Love were in 2007:
There are a few wrinkles in his game that will need polishing at the next level. He’s not nearly a good enough passer yet, and that could lead to some turnovers if opposing teams start doubling him. And while going 23-11 on a nightly basis is definitely noteworthy, some might feel he left something on the table—that perhaps Wiggins isn’t ready to dominate all the time, every time.
But these are both minor flaws. Wiggins’ passing is acceptable for now, and he’ll learn through trial and error against better competition. What’s more, the Jayhawks might be hoping that Wiggins hears some criticism about his questionable motor, as the last time someone called him out, he dropped 57 the next game.
This is a kid that has the talent to not only be an All-American, but to also win the National Player of the Year award. In fact, CBS Sports’ Gary Parrish is already preparing to give him the preseason distinction:
I’m not ready to go that far, but it doesn’t sound outlandish. This kid is a superstar in the making, a kid who, barring injury, will undoubtedly be the No. 1 pick in next year’s NBA draft. There is absolutely no downside to this moment; it’s one that should come with unrepentant glee for Jayhawk fans as they watch Wiggins over his one-year stay in college.
So with Wiggins signed, sealed and delivered to Kansas, there’s just one question that remains: Is it November yet?
Follow Tyler Conway on Twitter.
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Top high school recruit Andrew Wiggins picks Kansas
Jayhawks beat out three other finalists for the 6-8 forward from Huntington (W.Va.) Prep
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Andrew Wiggins Decision: How Top Recruit Stacks Up Against Recent One-and-Dones
Andrew Wiggins, one of the most talented high-school prospects in recent memory, dominated the college basketball headlines for much of the past month as he narrowed down his college choices. He finally elected to attend Kansas over other contenders such as Kentucky, North Carolina and Florida State.
We are a nation of sports fans that love to make comparisons to past players, and—fair or not—Wiggins is already being compared to some of the all-time greats (even some guy named LeBron James). He is yet to step foot on campus as a student (even if those footsteps will likely only last one year), but Wiggins is being hailed as the key for Kansas to return to the Final Four.
If we are assuming that Wiggins is going to have a breakout freshman campaign and use that momentum to declare for the NBA draft, how does he stack up against some of the more famous and successful one-and-dones in recent years?
There are a number of different ways to contrast Wiggins with headline names that left school after one season such as Anthony Davis, Shabazz Muhammad, Nerlens Noel, Derrick Rose and even Carmelo Anthony. Sure, his actual game is the obvious starting point, but let’s look at some of the external factors as well.
*Recruiting rankings and scouting reports courtesy of Scout.com.
Hype Factor
You don’t have to follow recruiting closely to know the name Wiggins at this point. If he falls anything short of Michael Jordan in Space Jam status it will be a disappointment when compared to the ridiculous hype that surrounded his decision process.
The clear standard for talking high-school hype is LeBron James, but it was always generally assumed that he would leave for the NBA even if idealist college coaches tried their best to get him on campus.
The hype surrounding Wiggins is not unprecedented though for someone who elected to go to college (or was forced to by the NBA’s rule). The year was 2006 and two high-school prospects that were in all likelihood going to school for one brief season were dominating the recruiting cycle.
Greg Oden, the No. 1 player in the class, was thought to be a program changer wherever he went, and Kevin Durant was the young and skinny kid who had star potential but wasn’t the sure thing that Oden was (sorry Portland). The fact that both chose football schools that (at the time) largely ignored basketball made them even more hyped commodities.
The fan bases at Ohio State and Texas were ready for nothing short of stardom and all of a sudden basketball was back on the map. Wiggins doesn’t have to worry about making hoops relevant again in Lawrence, but he is still viewed as a savior for a squad that lost all five starters from a year ago and disappointed by only reaching the Sweet 16.
Keep in mind that it was actually Oden’s lesser-known teammate Mike Conley Jr., who also went one-and-done, that went on to the better NBA career. Just something to keep an eye on as Wayne Selden, who could turn into a legitimate superstar himself, plays under Wiggins’ shadow at Kansas this year.
Immediate Impact
As is the case with many highly-regarded freshmen in today’s college basketball world, the expectations for an immediate impact are already in place for Wiggins. Kansas lost all five of its starters from a year ago and will be very reliant on its impressive recruiting class.
In terms of immediate impact for one-and-dones, Carmelo Anthony is the gold standard. He took a Syracuse team that would have been good but not great without him and got red-hot for the month of March. The result was a national championship and the restoration of a proud program among the game’s elite.
Anthony averaged an unthinkable 22 points and 10 rebounds a night for that Syracuse squad. Wiggins may be special, but it isn’t exactly fair to expect him to put up those type of astronomical numbers right away.
Perhaps a one-and-done like Derrick Rose is a better comparison. Rose came to Memphis as the integral part of a loaded recruiting class (a la Wiggins) and played out the season as option 1A alongside Chris Douglas-Roberts as option 1B. The Tigers eventually reached the national title game only to fall to Kansas. It may be a solid blueprint for Wiggins and Selden to follow.
Program Factor
Wiggins was in somewhat of a unique situation because he was choosing between three of the bluest of blue-blood programs in Kentucky, Kansas and North Carolina as well as a mid-tier basketball program (at best) in Florida State.
Like many of the recent one-and-dones, Wiggins chose to attend a basketball hotbed in Kansas. However, just because he will have talented teammates and plenty of banners above his head when he is playing doesn’t mean there won’t be pressure to keep the Jayhawks among the sport’s elite.
Josh Selby is the obvious comparison, who also came to Kansas with plenty of hype. Jayhawk fans were ready for stardom, but that is not exactly what they got. Selby disappointed by averaging fewer than eight points a game, and a less-than-stellar career was compounded even further when he still went to the NBA after one year.
It is a fairly safe bet that Wiggins will have a better showing in Lawrence than Selby. Perhaps a more pertinent comparison would be Anthony Davis or Shabazz Muhammad, who came to big-time programs as highly-regarded prospects with expectations of excellence. Davis gave Big Blue Nation its first title since 1998, while Muhammad had a productive individual campaign even if his team disappointed in March.
Wiggins chose Kansas, so he better be ready for the lofty expectations that come with that choice.
Overall Skill Set
Wiggins’ overall game has been discussed at length this offseason and will continue to be before tip-off, but there is a reason for that. He is the perfect combination of height, athleticism and speed and will thrive in today’s LeBron-inspired versatile forward era of basketball.
When comparing his overall skill set to those of other one-and-done players, it gets frightening for future opponents in the Big 12. He has the frame and rebounding ability of a Tristan Thompson and the freak athleticism of a Derrick Rose or Kyrie Irving.
Clearly he won’t have quite the handles of the point guards Rose and Irving, who just happen to be two of the best in the NBA, but his dribbling and driving ability, especially for his size, is rather impressive. Few big men will be able to keep up with him.
Wiggins will also develop into a formidable defensive presence when it comes to blocks, deflecting passes and rebounding, a la Davis or Nerlens Noel at Kentucky. Defensive player of the year likely won’t be the final result, but he will disrupt plenty of offenses.
Finally, his mid-range jump shot is developing to the point where it will be a legitimate weapon from the power forward spot. He may never have the touch of a Kevin Love (another one-and-done big man), but it is just another trick in his arsenal.
Wiggins is one of the best high-school talents we have seen in quite some time. By the end of his freshman campaign his name will in all likelihood be right alongside those of these premier players.
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Top hoops recruit Andrew Wiggins in photos
Many consider Wiggins to be the greatest high school prospect since LeBron James.
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Andrew Wiggins Decision: Can No. 1 Recruit Possibly Be Worth the Hype?
Andrew Wiggins, Canada’s gift to basketball, might be the most hyped basketball recruit of all time.
And Wiggins’ hype is a product of three things: what the talent evaluators say, a ridiculous mixtape and an anticipation that he has created by delaying his school decision until May 14.
We’re all here waiting and building in our minds what Wiggins could be as time passes. And all most of us really have is that mixtape.
Watch it and your jaw will drop.
Son of a professional basketball player and world-class sprinter, this 6’8″ phenom hit the genetic lottery. He jumps, dunks and has the body control of LeBron James.
The expectation is that Winggins’ impact—wherever he lands—will be similar to what LeBron James could have done in one season of college ball. That would not have been fair for college defenses. The comparison is not fair to Wiggins.
It’s a setup creating the illusion that Wiggins is a transcendent talent when there’s at least a possibility that he’s merely really, really good.
On April 20, Wiggins played in the Nike Hoop Summit, the finale of several weeks of crisscrossing the country to play in All-Star games. That was the last time Wiggins played in front of a national audience.
I tuned in.
I had never watched Wiggins play from start to finish.
I was ready to experience one of the greatest talents of my lifetime for the first time.
And…I was underwhelmed.
Wiggins’ numbers were good—he put up 17 points, four assists and nine rebounds—but if I knew absolutely nothing about any of the players going into that game, he would have hardly stood out. The best talent on his team, on that particular day, looked to be 17-year-old Dante Exum out of Australia. I doubt you’ve heard of Exum.
I did not come away convinced that Wiggins wasn’t still the best individual talent on the floor that day. But I did come away thinking it’s at least a possibility that Wiggins could be the Greg Oden to Kevin Durant of his class.
It is entirely possible that we really don’t know yet whether Wiggins will be a superstar, just a really good player or a footnote in a long line of can’t-miss high school prospects who later live in obscurity.
So I went to a friend in the coaching profession and posed this possibility to him.
“He’s awesome,” he said. “I believe that.”
He came back at me with 26 games and 677 minutes of data that told me a lot more than what I had witnessed in Wiggins’ 31 minutes at the Hoop Summit.
These 26 games were from last summer’s EYBL League, which is comprised of the best 40 Nike teams in the country and about half of the top-100 players in the 2013 class participated.
Wiggins averaged 19 points and seven rebounds, but those numbers alone are not what sold me.
In those 26 games against competition comparable to what he’ll see in college, Wiggins used 28 percent of his team’s possessions and had an offensive rating of 129. Last year, Nate Wolters led the nation in offensive rating for players who used at least 28 percent of possessions with a 123.5, according to KenPom.com.
In 2007, Kevin Durant’s offensive rating at Texas was 116.5.
Wiggins shot 35 of 97 from three (36 percent), made 63 percent of his twos and shot 71 percent at the line. He grabbed 18 percent of opponent’s misses and 8 percent of his team’s misses. He also averaged one block and one steal per game.
And these were only 32-minute games.
Those are amazing offensive numbers at any level. Even if the defense isn’t the greatest in summer league and the intensity does not match what Wiggins will see next year, those numbers had my attention.
“Nobody else’s numbers are that good,” my friend made sure to add.
This is why the talent evaluators are not hesitant to add to the hype. This is why North Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas and Florida State fans will react to Tuesday’s news like they’ve either won the title or lost it.
Wiggins’ impact will be great. He will make the highlight shows. He will entertain. But trying to predict next season’s national champion off of where one player goes to school is not a foolproof plan. And believing Wiggins is destined to become a star is ignoring the other factors that will come into play.
Wiggins has the tools. He has the opportunities to be great. But he’s never handled the pressure he’s about to handle. He’s never seen the spotlight he’s about to experience. No one knows how he will handle all of that.
I believe there is a possibility—even if it’s just a sliver—that he could end up viewed as a bust. I’m just less convinced it could happen than I was a day ago. I’ve been bitten by the hype bug.
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Andrew Wiggins Decision: Final Odds on Which School No. 1 Recruit Will Pick
Andrew Wiggins’ announcement is set for Tuesday, and that leaves one last crazy day of the guessing game we’ve been playing for months.
Whichever school Wiggins picks, get ready for its fans to tell you we should have seen the signs and known all along.
The odds are that NOBODY REALLY KNOWS where he’s headed, but that hasn’t stopped us from offering up predictions. So let’s give the odds for each team one final time.
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No. 1 hoops recruit Andrew Wiggins to commit Tuesday
Nation’s elite teams await word from potential future All-American
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UCLA recruit steals the show in dunk contest
UCLA recruit steals the show in dunk contest
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Nation’s top NCAA hoops recruit strikes out on the mound
Wiggins will likely go on to be the No. 1 pick in the 2014 NBA Draft.
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