The 5 Biggest College Basketball Rebuilding Projects in 2013-14 Season
Recruiting a large class, getting them time to grow together and then hoping they win big in their senior year is usually a good recipe for success. It’s the year after that really tests a coach.
The five teams on this list all made the NCAA tournament in 2013. And out of the 25 starters on these rosters, one starter returns next season.
For three of these teams, the adjustment period could take some time. At the other two, the expectation is to reload and keep winning.
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AP Source: Rebuilding 76ers hire Hinkie as new GM (Yahoo! Sports)
PHILADELPHIA (AP) — The 76ers crunched the numbers and decided to put the franchise in the hands of an analytics guru.
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Duke Basketball: Are the Blue Devils Headed for a Rebuilding Year in 2014?
There’s been a lot written about Duke’s stacked roster next season. After the 2012-13 season came to an end against Louisville, the speculation about the Blue Devils’ 2013-14 team has moved to the forefront for Duke fans.
But for all the possibilities in 2013-14, what about 2014-15?
It might seem strange to start thinking two years ahead, but when one-and-done players are the norm in college basketball, a team’s fortunes can change rather quickly. Kentucky proved as much this season as a national title was followed up by a first-round NIT exit to Robert Morris.
So it may be that the 2013-14 team is a bubble that will lead to 2014-15 recession in Durham.
The big additions to Duke’s 2013-14 team will be incoming freshman Jabari Parker, Matt Jones and Semi Ojeleye, as well as transfer Rodney Hood.
Both Parker and Hood are likely candidates to round out the starting five next season alongside Quinn Cook and Rasheed Sulaimon. The fifth starter spot is up for grabs, but whatever starting lineup the Blue Devils decide to go with, Duke will have a rotation of high quality players.
Josh Hairston and Tyler Thornton will both be seniors who might earn a starting spot, but will certainly see a great deal of time off the bench. Amile Jefferson and Marshall Plumlee will both be sophomores with the ability to play in the post on a team that lacks height. Either of them could challenge for a starting position. Alex Murphy will also be a sophomore and showed flashes of his talent on impressive cuts to the basket when he saw minutes as a freshman. If Murphy finds his feet from three, then he’ll likely force the coaching staff to find him more time on the court.
Then there’s the potential return of Andre Dawkins. He adds a sharp shooter with starter potential and will surely merit substantial minutes given his ability to blow out a wide margin for Duke by getting hot from three. After taking a year off, it’s hard to know where he stands in terms of his on-court abilities. If he’s the Andre Dawkins of old, however, he’ll certainly contend for a starting spot or at least get serious minutes off the bench.
So even before new arrivals Matt Jones and Semi Ojeleye come into the picture, Duke has 10 players that deserve to see a healthy amount of time on the court.
As great as that sounds, it’s not sustainable.
Once the 2013-14 season is over, Hairston and Thornton will have graduated. Rodney Hood is likely bound for the NBA after one year at Duke, as is Jabari Parker. If Cook has a good junior year in 2013-14, he might head for the draft. Sulaimon, too, will attract NBA interest if his sophomore campaign is highly successful.
A worst-case scenario could see Duke heading into the 2014-15 season having lost six players to the NBA and graduation. And that doesn’t account for possible transfers by players who might feel snubbed sitting at the end of the bench on a deep 2013-14 team.
Barring transfers, Duke should at least start 2014-15 with Matt Jones, Semi Ojeleye, Alex Murphy and Marshall Plumlee. If Sulaimon returned for his junior year, then he’d likely be the team’s primary scorer. Cook, however, is the more interesting piece of the 2014-15 puzzle. If he opts out of a senior season at Duke, then the Blue Devils would be left without a point guard on the roster.
Of course, Duke isn’t standing pat. The Blue Devils have already made an offer to point guard Tyus Jones. Unfortunately, the five-star recruit is also considering Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, Ohio State, Baylor, and Minnesota. Even if the Blue Devils landed his signature, Tyus Jones would be forced to start as a freshman if Cook left early.
The bottom line is this: The 2013-14 season should be an enjoyable embarrassment of riches for Duke fans. However, that happiness might be short-lived as it could be a potential prelude for a mass exodus of Blue Devil players.
Duke is not Kentucky. Coach Mike Krzyzewski won’t turn his program into a one-and-done factory for the NBA. Still, this 2013-14 team is a collection of mercenaries—very talented, but only associated with the program in the short term. If players like Cook, Sulaimon, Parker and Hood leave the college ranks early, then Duke could be looking at something of a rebuilding year in 2014-15.
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Duke Basketball: Are the Blue Devils Headed for a Rebuilding Year in 2014?
There’s been a lot written about Duke’s stacked roster next season. After the 2012-13 season came to an end against Louisville, the speculation about the Blue Devils’ 2013-14 team has moved to the forefront for Duke fans.
But for all the possibilities in 2013-14, what about 2014-15?
It might seem strange to start thinking two years ahead, but when one-and-done players are the norm in college basketball, a team’s fortunes can change rather quickly. Kentucky proved as much this season as a national title was followed up by a first-round NIT exit to Robert Morris.
So it may be that the 2013-14 team is a bubble that will lead to 2014-15 recession in Durham.
The big additions to Duke’s 2013-14 team will be incoming freshman Jabari Parker, Matt Jones and Semi Ojeleye, as well as transfer Rodney Hood.
Both Parker and Hood are likely candidates to round out the starting five next season alongside Quinn Cook and Rasheed Sulaimon. The fifth starter spot is up for grabs, but whatever starting lineup the Blue Devils decide to go with, Duke will have a rotation of high quality players.
Josh Hairston and Tyler Thornton will both be seniors who might earn a starting spot, but will certainly see a great deal of time off the bench. Amile Jefferson and Marshall Plumlee will both be sophomores with the ability to play in the post on a team that lacks height. Either of them could challenge for a starting position. Alex Murphy will also be a sophomore and showed flashes of his talent on impressive cuts to the basket when he saw minutes as a freshman. If Murphy finds his feet from three, then he’ll likely force the coaching staff to find him more time on the court.
Then there’s the potential return of Andre Dawkins. He adds a sharp shooter with starter potential and will surely merit substantial minutes given his ability to blow out a wide margin for Duke by getting hot from three. After taking a year off, it’s hard to know where he stands in terms of his on-court abilities. If he’s the Andre Dawkins of old, however, he’ll certainly contend for a starting spot or at least get serious minutes off the bench.
So even before new arrivals Matt Jones and Semi Ojeleye come into the picture, Duke has 10 players that deserve to see a healthy amount of time on the court.
As great as that sounds, it’s not sustainable.
Once the 2013-14 season is over, Hairston and Thornton will have graduated. Rodney Hood is likely bound for the NBA after one year at Duke, as is Jabari Parker. If Cook has a good junior year in 2013-14, he might head for the draft. Sulaimon, too, will attract NBA interest if his sophomore campaign is highly successful.
A worst-case scenario could see Duke heading into the 2014-15 season having lost six players to the NBA and graduation. And that doesn’t account for possible transfers by players who might feel snubbed sitting at the end of the bench on a deep 2013-14 team.
Barring transfers, Duke should at least start 2014-15 with Matt Jones, Semi Ojeleye, Alex Murphy and Marshall Plumlee. If Sulaimon returned for his junior year, then he’d likely be the team’s primary scorer. Cook, however, is the more interesting piece of the 2014-15 puzzle. If he opts out of a senior season at Duke, then the Blue Devils would be left without a point guard on the roster.
Of course, Duke isn’t standing pat. The Blue Devils have already made an offer to point guard Tyus Jones. Unfortunately, the five-star recruit is also considering Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, Ohio State, Baylor, and Minnesota. Even if the Blue Devils landed his signature, Tyus Jones would be forced to start as a freshman if Cook left early.
The bottom line is this: The 2013-14 season should be an enjoyable embarrassment of riches for Duke fans. However, that happiness might be short-lived as it could be a potential prelude for a mass exodus of Blue Devil players.
Duke is not Kentucky. Coach Mike Krzyzewski won’t turn his program into a one-and-done factory for the NBA. Still, this 2013-14 team is a collection of mercenaries—very talented, but only associated with the program in the short term. If players like Cook, Sulaimon, Parker and Hood leave the college ranks early, then Duke could be looking at something of a rebuilding year in 2014-15.
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Blueprint for LA Lakers Rebuilding Process After Kobe Bryant Retires
The Los Angeles Lakers need a strong combination of coaching, superstar talent and a consistent culture to fill the massive void that Kobe Bryant will leave when he retires from the NBA. Kobe has been the face of the Lakers for over a decade now, but his departure does not have to mean stormy seas ahead for L.A.
Despite his greatness, the Lakers are a premier professional sports franchise with proven longevity. Their prowess is consistent and undeniable; therefore, rebuilding should take less time and creativity than it would for teams with a weaker brand. And despite many Michael Jordan comparisons, Los Angeles has a significantly brighter immediate future than the Bulls did in 1998.
For starters, let’s assume that Kobe will relent and hang ‘em up once his contract—which will pay him an atrocious $30.453 million for his final season—expires in 2014. Unless Dwight Howard signs a max contract with the Lakers during the upcoming offseason, the Lakers will have incredible cap flexibility come summer ‘14. Not only will Kobe’s salary be off the books, but so too will those of his highest-paid friends in Pau Gasol and Metta World Peace.
As you can clearly see, the Lakers are financially prepared for a remodel. And wouldn’t you know it, the free-agent market in 2014 is chalk full of superstars who could re-insert the Lakers into a title hunt. LeBron James tops the list of attractive candidates, but for argument’s sake, let’s say he decides on an alternative location.
In my opinion, the best start would be to ink Dwight to a long-term deal as soon as possible. Despite the drama and media circus that has followed D12 in his short tenure as a Laker, general manager Mitch Kupchak would be hard-pressed to find a comparable replacement at his position.
Let us not forget that just a year ago, Howard was tops at his position in scoring and rebounding while finishing second among centers in blocks. This in a lockout-shortened season that wasn’t his most impressive year. Signing Dwight in 2013 would be a preemptive measure against the potential for a post-Kobe decline.
B/R’s own Ehran Kahn broke down the list of available free agents come 2014 back in December and his opinion is worth a read. From his list, Luol Deng, Kyle Lowry and O.J. Mayo pique my interest most. Andre Iguodala also may be on the market and would be a great sign, but I have a hunch he will receive a max contract offer from Denver.
With over $100 million soon off the books, President of Basketball Operations Jim Buss and the aforementioned Kupchak will have the flexibility and procurable talent to design the team of the future in L.A. My prediction is that they will look to sign the youngest talent—Mayo will be 27, Lowry 28 and Deng 29—after this season’s experience.
Now, who will be the head coach, the front man, the glue? Coach Mike D’Antoni’s contract lasts through 2015 with an option for 2016, but something tells me he won’t be around that long given how this season has played out. It may be time for a fresh start at the helm as soon as Kobe retires.
My ideal man for the job is current Pacers assistant coach and former Lakers assistant coach Brian Shaw. Shaw was part of the Lakers team that won three consecutive titles from 2000-2002, and coached with Phil Jackson for two titles in ’09 and ’10.
Simply put, Brian Shaw knows the ins and outs of Lakers culture, what it takes to win a title and was already a candidate for the head coaching position. It wouldn’t take much to persuade Shaw to claim the job that he was spurned in favor of Mike Brown at the start of the 2012-13 campaign.
The final piece of the blueprint that will determine how quickly the Lakers rebound from the loss of their greatest player ever will be the attitude within the franchise. As I’ve detailed above, the Lakers are in a great position to move on quickly and effectively once Bryant retires.
But, events as seismic as Kobe’s departure could seriously shake the spirit of the team. This year, Jim Buss has been at the core of talks about organizational chemistry. After dragging Phil Jackson through the mud—the Lakers couldn’t afford him anyway—Buss’ leadership has constantly been in question. Luckily, most of Kobe’s on-court comrades—only Nash has guaranteed money in 2015—will be on their way out as well.
Having the right coach makes all the difference at a time like this, and D’Antoni is not the man for the job. Whatever change the Lakers seek to make after Kobe calls it quits needs to reflect a feeling of youth, energy and intestinal fortitude. The team needs someone to absorb all of the media heat, work successfully with the management and understand how best to employ the athletes.
A fresh start will soon be the motto in Los Angeles. Have no fear Lakers fans, the franchise has the resources to make the post-Bryant leap short and painless.
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Rebuilding NBA Teams on Brink of Contention
This 2012-13 season several teams in the NBA are emerging from years of mediocrity to stake their claim as legitimate competitors and contenders in this league.
These teams have endured many years of painful rebuilding. Some still need more work to fully claim their spots as contenders. That work means a needed trade, possibly the right free agent signing, or simply letting their current rosters mature.
Nonetheless, the groundwork has been laid and the heavy-lifting for the most part is complete. These are the teams that give hope to currently despondent fan bases that one day their GM and owner will make the right moves. Lady Luck indeed will wink at them a time or two.
So without further ado, here are the NBA teams on the brink of contention.
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NBA Podcast: Teams with the Best Rebuilding Pieces
Options are always good, especially for these NBA teams who may be facing some rebuilding projects.
It’s not just about the bottom-feeders who need a complete overhaul either. There are plenty middle-of-the-pack franchises who have the pieces to tinker. Sometimes the right move or two can be the catalyst for taking a team over the top.
In this episode of Basketball by Association, NBA assistant editors Ethan Norof and Joel C. Cordes detail which franchises have the flexibility to reshape their rosters, along with which squads really need to swing at the NBA trade deadline.
Check out compelling NBA coverage from these guys and more here.
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The Case for NBA Teams Rebuilding Through Free Agency vs. the Draft
Very often, the simplest of concepts go overlooked. When attempting to build a winning NBA program, an inept general manager is likely to look at some of the NBA’s successful franchises and replicate their model of success.
Over the last 10 years, six different teams have won the NBA championship—the San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks.
And with the exception of two of them (2004 Pistons and 2012 Heat) each of the winning teams either drafted or traded for the player that would win the Finals MVP for them.
Since the NBA began anointing a Finals MVP in 1969, only eight times has the recipient of the award been someone who was not drafted or acquired by their team on draft night.
So yes, there is a copious amount of evidence that suggests the key to this whole thing is rebuilding through the draft.
But the times have changed, and there is a major case to be made for teams electing to build through free agency. That’s especially the case after the ratification of the 2011 NBA collective bargaining agreement.
The idea of simply “building through the draft” assumes that losing scores of games and amassing lottery picks is some surefire way to draft young players who will not only fit together, but who will be good enough, collectively, to win big in the NBA.
Obviously, the Oklahoma City Thunder is the epitome of a franchise which has succeeded in that regard. But drafting is risky business. For each LeBron James and Kevin Durant, there are ten Darko Milicics and Adam Morrisons.
The draft is a bit of a crap shoot and if you’re going to depend on making the right decisions in three or four successive drafts, you’re probably much more likely to end up like the pre-Derrick Rose Chicago Bulls than Sam Presti’s Thunder.
In the post-Michael Jordan era, the Bulls have had 13 draft picks in the Top 20. It’s safe to say that they nailed it with Derrick Rose—the first overall pick in the 2008 draft. Joakim Noah, who they selected ninth overall in the 2007 draft, was also a win, as was Luol Deng—who was actually drafted by the Phoenix Suns but was immediately traded to the Bulls to satisfy a prior trade.
But during this time period, the Bulls also selected James Johnson (2009), Ben Gordon (2003), Kirk Hinrich (2003), Jay Williams (2002), Eddy Curry (2001), Marcus Fizer (2000), Chris Mihm (2000) and Ron Artest (1999).
They also made two other good decisions in drafting LaMarcus Aldridge with the second overall pick in the 2006 draft and Elton Brand with the first overall pick in the 1999 draft, but they botched both of them.
Thomas was immediately traded to the Portland Trailblazers for Tyrus Thomas and Viktor Khyrapa, and Brand—after sharing the 1999-2000 Rookie of the Year award with Steve Francis—was traded for Tyson Chandler.
The Bulls’ experience of the past 10 years is one that we’ve seen in the past (the Los Angeles Clippers of the mid-to-late 1990s), and one that we’re probably seeing before our eyes with the Sacramento Kings and the Golden State Warriors.
Teams bottom out, amass high draft picks, and spend many, many years floundering because they botch the picks or otherwise fail to acquire players who can succeed with one another.
Building through the draft is probably the most satisfying way to build a contending team, mainly because it affords a team and its fanbase with the opportunity to watch young players grow and develop.
But building a team that way—and keeping it together—is one of the more difficult things to do in this league. And it was that way even before the era of the NBA’s super-duper luxury tax was upon on.
That difficulty, though, is why the San Antonio Spurs are universally revered amongst NBA circles. And Sam Presti—who was groomed in the Spurs organization—has done a magnificent job of replicating their model.
But here’s a fair question to ask: Wouldn’t things be completely different for the Thunder if the Portland Trail Blazers selected Kevin Durant instead of Greg Oden with the first overall pick of the 2007 draft?
And what if the Memphis Grizzlies general manager, Chris Wallace, thought that Russell Westbrook was better than O.J. Mayo?
If he did, Kevin McHale would have drafted Westbrook with the third overall pick of the 2008 draft and traded him to the Grizzlies for Kevin Love. But Wallace didn’t see that, so McHale took the guy Wallace wanted, and that was Mayo.
The point is that the Thunder model of success is atypical and requires a great deal of skill in talent evaluation and a whole bunch of luck.
And although building a winner through free agency is difficult, in the near future, things may get a bit easier. Before recently, the type of Hall of Fame talent that a team could build around rarely hit the free-agent market. By rule, a team holding a player’s Bird rights could offer him the most money and historically, that’s been enough.
However, as I said a few weeks ago, the times are changing in the NBA. Fewer players of today’s generation will be willing to attach their careers and legacies to losing programs, and teams with winning traditions or solid foundations know this.
So, Kevin Love saying that he’s growing weary of losing in Minneapolis and reports of the Lakers keeping their cap open for the summer of 2014 will become the new norm.
Why?
Because general managers around the league know that by chasing and signing free agents, they can reduce their reliance on getting lucky in the draft and still build a winner.
And that’s the answer. When building a team through free agency, for the most part, a shrewd general manager should be able to make wise decisions and not needlessly throw tens of millions of dollars at fringe talent and supporting players. He’d have a reliable body of work upon which he can evaluate a player, know strengths and weaknesses and make an informed decision.
Knowing what you’re getting for your money is a much better proposition than thinking you’re drafting the next Tim Duncan when all you’ve got is Kurt Thomas.
No, you can’t pay a supporting actor lead money, but in the cases of Gilbert Arenas (Washington Wizards), Tracy McGrady (Orlando Magic), Steve Nash (Phoenix Suns), Chauncey Billups (Detroit Pistons) and Shaquille O’Neal (Los Angeles Lakers), the general managers in charge made wise investments in these free agents and they all paid off, even though only the latter two were able to deliver championships to their team.
It’s true, building through free agency can mitigate risk.
The other major reason that building a team via free agency is because of the limitations set forth by the NBA’s 2011 collective bargaining agreement. I wrote on it in detail in a July column I wrote for SheridanHoops, but below is the short version.
Under the new CBA, contracts will be shorter and that means that players will become free agents more frequently over the course of their careers. A four-year free agent deal is the new norm.
Secondly, the new CBA actually contains a loophole that will certainly be closed the next time the league and the player’s union renegotiate.
In short, rather than signing extensions with their current teams, the CBA has actually given players incentive to become free agents. Only by becoming a free agent may a player sign a five-year deal with the team that holds his Bird rights.
That’s exactly why Chris Paul and Dwight Howard have refused to sign extensions with their respective Los Angeles clubs. There is a built-in financial incentive for them to become free agents.
It makes little sense since teams whose stars are in the final year of their deals will sit on pins and needles like the Brooklyn Nets did last year with Deron Williams and the Philadelphia 76ers will do this year with Andrew Bynum. But that’s what will happen.
And lastly, the luxury tax.
Beginning with the 2013-2014 NBA season, NBA teams will pay a new incremental luxury tax and the result is that most of the NBA’s teams are going to reduce their spending. That’s exactly what we’re seeing right now between the Oklahoma City Thunder and James Harden and it’s exactly why Harden may ultimately become a free agent and leave the Thunder.
Though the sides have until Oct. 31 to come to an agreement, the fact that a move that should be a no-brainer has taken so long is evidence enough.
The end result of these factors simply means that more players will be hitting free agency and because of the reduction in maximum contract lengths, they’ll be hitting free agency more frequently.
Free agency: you’ve gotta be in it to win it.
So rather than depending on drafting a Hall of Famer that can lead a team to a championship, a general manager may be wiser to attempt to build a team through free agency.
Over the next two years, the free agent market is likely to include Chris Paul, Andrew Bynum, Dwight Howard, Josh Smith, Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry, Andre Iguodala, Kyle Lowry, Luol Deng, Pau Gasol, Chris Bosh, Marcin Gortat and Andrew Bogut… just to name a few.
In July 2013 and 2014, I’d love to have Mark Cuban’s checkbook, because I don’t think small-market teams like the Utah Jazz or Milwaukee Bucks would be willing to enter luxury tax territory.
In the NBA, the times are changing. In attempting to level the playing field, the league may have actually facilitated more player movement.
On behalf of all who cover the league during the month of July, I sarcastically say thanks to the league.
The silver lining in all of this? Perhaps we’ll see less tanking. Because at the end of the day, you have a much better chance of signing an impact free agent to help your team than you do of drafting Kevin Durant.
And at the end of the day, that’s why building through free agency may not be such a bad idea, after all.
Moke Hamilton covers the Brooklyn Nets for SportsNet New York and is a Featured NBA Columnist whose columns appear here on Mondays and Wednesdays. Follow him on Twitter.
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Knicks turn to old guys in rebuilding roster (Yahoo! Sports)
GREENBURGH, N.Y. (AP) — Their first practice of the season finishing, the Knicks gathered in a circle for a song.
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Will LaMarcus Aldridge Stick Through Portland Trail Blazers’ Rebuilding Project?
“Franchise” stars haven’t lived up to their names in recent times. With Dwight Howard‘s nightmarish tantrum and Kevin Love’s frayed patience in mind, all small-market teams should now legitimately fear their superstars bolting for greener pastures.
The Portland Trail Blazers are no different. As a small-market team, they too will face challenges keeping their franchise player LaMarcus Aldridge. Add in their recent fall to the rebuilding zone, and the challenges become magnified.
No player in the NBA likes to stay in a rebuilding team. Losing day after day makes stars feel as though their talents and efforts are not being appreciated enough and leads them to become impatient and unhappy. If pushed too far, the players leave for promising powerhouses where they can win games and contend for titles.
Rebuilding periods coinciding with athletic pinnacles can be a powerful catalyst to franchise stars deserting their home teams. Too many superstars have fled their teams in fear of wasting their primes on lesser teams with low chances to win rings. Dwight Howard and LeBron James come to mind in recent memory.
The same could happen to LaMarcus Aldridge. He’s entering his utmost prime at 27 years old and will look to be in a contending squad, not a rebuilding one. As a competitive athlete seeking to be the best, Aldridge will surely abhor wasting his valuable heyday away on a losing team without a clear path in the immediate future.
The Blazers’ most necessary measure to convince Aldridge would be completing and terminating their rebuilding process as quickly as possible and returning as rapidly as they can to playoff contention. Sparing a year or two for rebuilding might work, but any process stretching to more than three years will be unacceptable to the 27-year-old power forward.
Another possible strategy for the Blazers to appease Aldridge will be laying out blueprints and making aggressive moves to improve his supporting cast. This summer’s daring moves, including offering a max contract at All-Star center Roy Hibbert were ineffective but impressive nonetheless. Continuing to make such sharp moves will help both the team and Aldridge himself.
Some superstars are simply disgruntled at playing in small markets. Fortunately, Aldridge is not one of them. Ever since his two-year tenure in Texas, where he turned down NBA offers and returned after his freshman year, Aldridge has built a reputation as a loyal player, sometimes sacrificing time or money for his team.
If the Blazers take care to put effort in improving the team as much and as soon as possible, Aldridge will see no reason to harm his reputation, abandon Portland and bolt for a bigger and better team. While the future seems murky in Portland, successfully retaining Aldridge will foreshadow a bright future.
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