NBA Finals 2013: Complete Viewing Guide for Pivotal Game 6 of Heat vs. Spurs
Game 6 of the 2013 NBA Finals promises to be one of the best in the series, as the defending champion Miami Heat have their backs against the wall and must stave off elimination at the hands of the surging San Antonio Spurs.
The action returns to South Beach for this Tuesday night thriller, and you know the home crowd will do its best to will Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Co. to victory.
It’s likely they don’t even need the extra jolt, as these proven champions know the stakes. They have lost on the biggest stage before, watching the Dallas Mavericks celebrate on the floor at AmericanAirlines Arena in 2011.
Let’s take a look at where you can watch this thrilling game, highlight which player to keep an eye on, check out my prediction on the final score and more.
When: Tuesday, June 18 at 9 p.m. ET
Where: AmericanAirlines Arena, Miami, FL
Watch: ABC
Key Player: LeBron James
The league’s reigning MVP has to dig deep in Game 6, proving to himself and his detractors that he has the cutthroat, ruthless mentality that marked all the greats that have come before him.
Considering James is easily the best player in the world and capable of dominating any opponent almost single-handedly, he’s going to need to put the team on his back and show us once and for all tonight.
In Game 6 of the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals, James ascended to this rare state of basketball enlightenment, dropping 45 points on the Boston Celtics and forcing a critical Game 7—which his Heat would obviously go on to win.
If he can get to that level again, James will be able to shred the Spurs defense and disrupt their offense while carrying the scoring load and doing everything else required for his side to emerge with the “W.”
Big Stat: Only Three Teams Have Been Here and Succeeded
The Heat are certainly down, but they aren’t out, as history as shown us throughout the years.
Due to the 2-3-2 format of the Finals, Miami gets to play the next two contests at home. They could follow the 2010 Los Angeles Lakers, 1994 Houston Rockets and 1988 Lakers into the history books as yet another squad to emerge victorious in this situation.
Here’s a visual, courtesy of ESPN Stats and Info:
The 2010 Lakers were led by Kobe Bryant, the ’94 Rockets had Hakeem Olajuwon at the helm and the ’88 Lakers were run by Magic Johnson in his prime. If LBJ is truly going to be remembered as one of the greatest of all time, he has to join this exclusive fraternity by winning Game 6 and 7.
Prediction
The Spurs and Heat have been trading blows ever since San Antonio delivered the opening salvo in Game 1. Now it’s once against Miami’s turn to get a win and force the decisive Game 7.
While Spurs coach Gregg Popovich will have his players motivated and ready to close out, the Heat simply have the more talented roster and the players have every reason to give every last thing they can muster in this one.
In the NBA, talent usually trumps all, which is something that will once again prove true tonight.
Don’t be surprised if the Heat run away with this one on the back of a strong, motivated effort from James and the rest of the supporting cast.
Heat 103 – Spurs 95
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NBA Finals 2013: Complete Preview and Predictions for Game 4
Heading into Thursday night’s Game 4 of the 2013 NBA Finals, it seems the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat have made it their jobs to give us more questions than answers in their first three contests.
For Miami, it’s merely different variations of the same storylines from the previous two years told through a new prism. What’s wrong with LeBron James? Did anyone check Dwyane Wade‘s birth certificate? Is it time to trade Chris Bosh? Does any role player not named Mike Miller know how to make a jump shot? Will coach Erik Estrada ever get off his motorcycle and actually coach a basketball game?
In print, they feel so over-discussed that the word “blah” doesn’t even begin to describe it.
Same thing for the Spurs. Other than Tony Parker’s injury status, some variation of these storylines was probably discussed at your local sports bar in 2007. How is Tim Duncan this good at this age? Were the Amazon reviewers of Ageless Male lying to me? Where does Gregg Popovich keep finding these players off the street? Is it OK to nickname Danny Green Golden Shot?
While it all seems like silly, sarcasm-filled minutiae, it’s impossible to not get caught up in these moments, these underlying currents of things that seem so small but actually create the entire picture.
With just hours to go before Game 4 tips off, it’s those questions that need answering. Well, at least the ones that don’t involve 1980s procedurals and testosterone tablets. We can save those for Friday morning.
With that out of the way, let’s take a complete look at everything you need to know about Thursday’s Game 4.
Game Information
When: Thursday, June 13 at 9 p.m. ET
Where: AT&T Center in San Antonio
Watch: ABC
Stream: WatchESPN
Storylines to Watch
Can the Heat Offense—Particularly LeBron James—Adjust to the Spurs’ D?
I’m about to say something, and it might be controversial. It’s a pretty original thought, so be prepared to be floored. Seriously, you might want to take a seat. OK, I warned you, here it goes:
LeBron James has lacked aggression in this series. He’s not attacking the rim enough and has been completely taken out of the post when guarded by Kawhi Leonard. For just the 10th time in his illustrious career, James did not take a free throw against San Antonio. In Game 3 he shot 7-of-21 from the floor en route to his third straight contest below the 20-point mark.
“I played like s—,” James said after the game, echoing the sentiments of every social media platform known to man (per Sports Illustrated’s Ben Golliver).
But great players have bad games. Even the Skip Baylesses of the world know that LeBron James can’t be perfect every time out. There are ebbs and flows with every player’s journey, though LeBron was so near perfect he made us question that universal truth this season. Tuesday, and this series as a whole, has been different. For once, the ravenous pitbulls of bluster known as the comment-baiting media have it right.
He’s looked rudderless offensively, much in the same way he did against the Mavericks in 2011. Too many possessions look like the one below, with James dribbling around aimlessly for the entirety of the shot clock before hoisting up a bad jumper.
We can all see that LeBron is playing poorly. A player who started the regular season with 33 straight 20-plus point games doesn’t score below that mark in three straight in the NBA Finals without something being amiss—mentally and schematically.
The key for Miami heading into Game 4 is to figure out why, and how to fix it. Well, good luck with that one, Mr. Spoelstra.
Figuring out San Antonio’s defensive scheme against LeBron takes all of about a quarter of film work—assuming that quarter includes all of James’ array of skills. Gregg Popovich, being the evil genius that he is, is throwing a consistent array of looks at James depending on his offensive purpose in each set.
Because everyone’s so focused on LeBron being in “attack mode,” which essentially means he starts the possession at the top of the key, let’s start there. When James starts a possession on the perimeter, San Antonio is blatantly following the Dallas blueprint from two years ago. They’re allowing him to take almost every off-the-dribble mid-range jumper he wants, daring him to shy away from the rim.
On the play previously highlighted, Tiago Splitter is standing almost in the paint the entire time James is dribbling beyond the three-point line. But Splitter, slow on his feet, would probably do that even it it wasn’t a team-wide emphasis put in place by Popovich. Here’s a look at another situation for James, this time guarded by the more active Kawhi Leonard, as he’s granted an almost equal amount of space from the elbow:
This strategy shouldn’t work. James hit 43.2 percent of his mid-range jumpers and 40.6 percent of his threes during the regular season—both elite numbers. Whether it’s confidence, exhaustion or what have you, those shots just aren’t falling against San Antonio.
When the Heat try to get James going by sending him into the post, the Spurs’ mentality has a Hydian switch. Suddenly, San Antonio does its best Miami jig, doubling and trapping James hard in the post, trying to get the ball out of his hands. The Spurs have typically sent more help Danny Green’s way than when Leonard is guarding him, but Miami has struggled all series long to find ways for James to get easier, quicker post position.
In Game 3, Spoelstra implemented a new set I suspect we’ll see a ton more going forward. The Heat will have a man set a quick cross screen for James, hoping to get him in deep enough position for a quick-strike shot. It fails here—notice the swarming bodies again—but the intent is good.
That being said, the Spurs wouldn’t be able to double James as hard if they had any respect for Dwyane Wade. It’s become clear through these first few games that Popovich is going to take advantage of Wade’s knee problems by having defenders treat him with a Tony Allen-like disregard.
When Wade sets himself as the primary ball-handler on a possession, San Antonio just applies its LeBron strategy. The Spurs will have Wade’s defender stay two or three steps closer to the painted area, knowing that No. 3 isn’t going to start jacking up triples and that he doesn’t have the first step to make them pay by taking it to the basket.
This creates a multitude of problems, not the least of which get heaped on James. On this set, Manu Ginobili is so comfortable abandoning Wade that he’s able to single-handedly muck up what looked like a successful clear-out isolation for LeBron.
How do you fix this? ESPN’s Tom Haberstroh suggested moving Wade to the bench, which seems crazy, but is backed up by numbers and the eye test in this series. Wade won’t get benched because, well, he’s Dwyane Wade. But Spoelstra needs to find some time for LeBron to be on the court “alone” in this series—especially with the league MVP going through issues of his own.
Will the Spurs Continue Destroying Miami on Offensive Glass?
During the regular season, San Antonio rebounded just 20.5 percent of its misses. That level of putridity was only eclipsed by the Boston Celtics, who have now finished at the bottom of the league three years running in that statistic. Prior to taking on Miami in the finals, San Antonio improved its offensive rebounding rate to a robust 22 percent—the worst rate of any team that advanced past Round 1.
The Spurs, simply put, were an awful offensive rebounding squad. There are plenty of mitigating factors to answer the question of why the Spurs were so bad collecting extra possessions—mostly the schematic emphasis on getting back on defense—but the fact remains they seemed of little threat to Miami.
Though the Heat were bludgeoned inside by the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals, San Antonio doesn’t have Roy Hibbert. It doesn’t have David West. There is no season-long emphasis on creating second opportunities within the Spurs’ system. The Heat, at the very least, should be able to play San Antonio to something of a draw on the glass.
Or so the theory goes.
Instead, the Spurs have grabbed offensive boards at a near-Pacerian rate through the series’ first three games. After languishing in the low 20 percents for the first its first 96 games of the season (regular season and playoffs), San Antonio is at a 30.5 percent rate in the finals. That would have been fourth-best in the regular season. Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard are averaging a combined 8.3 offensive rebounds per game in this series. Eight-point-three!
Certainly, when juxtaposing the Jurassic figures of a three-game sample size with the tiny figures of the previous 96, it’s easy to point out an expected regression to the mean. And that’s likely over the course of what will certainly be a six- or seven-game series.
But we won’t see that regression until the Heat—namely Dwyane Wade and LeBron James—give better effort when covering Leonard on box outs. Duncan, for his part, has done an excellent job at getting position after Heat traps and setting himself in case one of his teammates jacks up a long-range shot. And Duncan is also tall. Very, very tall.
The Leonard issue is arguably more critical and dates back to Game 1, a contest where the Spurs pulled down a meager six ORBs. If you’ll allow me to get all sportswritery for a second, this is the NBA Finals. We shouldn’t be seeing plays like this from Wade—first losing his man beyond recovery, then giving the effort of a 16-year-old kid working his way through summer on a minimum wage job on the box-out on Leonard. Injuries or not, that’s just not acceptable.
The same can be said about James on the play below, during a time in Game 3 where the Heat were very much still in the contest. There are two offensive boards for San Antonio on this play, the latter being James’ mishandling of Leonard. The first is a flukey offensive board that just happens from time to time—the exact type those screaming “regression to the mean” can easily point to. But James and Norris Cole allow Leonard to come crashing in unabated and give the Spurs a third attempt on one possession.
Games 2 and 3 are especially littered with these plays. And the Spurs haven’t been wasting their opportunities. Danny Green and Gary Neal both took advantage of offensive rebounds to knock down some of their daggers on Tuesday night—mainly because it’s nearly impossible for players to get back in proper defensive position after an offensive rebound.
There’s no strategical change that Erik Spoelstra can make to fix this. His guys just have to try harder, starting with his two most famous faces.
Prediction
The great thing about this series is that it’s been inherently unpredictable. One instant classic and two blowouts (one for each side) have been the result of the first three games, so there’s really no telling what could come next.
Despite all the negativity surrounding Miami, the Heat still have one semi-universal truth at their disposal: They don’t lose back-to-back games. It’s happened once since the beginning of 2013, and RJ Bell of Pregame.com had quite the encouraging stat for Heat fans:
As of publication, the Spurs are one-point favorites, per Bovada; this game is essentially a pick ‘em. It’s not the best reason to ride with the defending champions, but anyone who tries making game-to-game predictions with any righteous vigor is doing so just to hear themselves posture. We don’t know what will happen, and that’s perfectly fine.
But let’s just assume the best player on the planet finds his way past the 20-point mark and leads his team to victory on Thursday. If not, well, congrats on title No. 5, San Antonio.
Score Prediction: Heat 97, Spurs 91
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Heat vs. Spurs: Complete Guide for Game 2 of 2013 NBA Finals
Game 2 of the 2013 NBA Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat tips off on Sunday night, and it promises to be just as thrilling as the initial contest of this best-of-seven series
With the Spurs stealing Game 1 after Tony Parker’s dagger with no time left on the shot clock, the Heat are now—as Dwyane Wade put it—in a must-win situation. Due to the 2-3-2 format of the finals, Miami simply cannot afford to leave South Beach in a 2-0 hole.
Let’s take a look at some more critical stats, highlight where to watch the game and who to keep an eye on, make a prediction on the final score and more in our Game 2 preview.
When: Sunday, June 9 at 8 p.m. ET
Where: AT&T Center, San Antonio, Tex.
Watch: ABC
Series Record: Spurs 1, Heat 0
Projected Starting Lineups for Game 2
San Antonio: Tony Parker, PG; Danny Green, SG; Kawhi Leonard, SF; Tim Duncan, PF; Tiago Splitter, C
Miami: Mario Chalmers, PG; Dwyane Wade, SG; LeBron James, SF; Udonis Haslem, PF; Chris Bosh, C
Fun Fact: New Award Prior to Showdown
Before you settle in to watch some top-flight basketball, it’s worth it to tune in at 7 p.m. ET to catch commissioner David Stern announce the latest award to be given out each season.
According to Steve Aschburner of NBA.com, the Twyman-Stokes Teammate of the Year Award will be announced and the inaugural recipient for the 2012-13 season will be presented with his trophy.
12 finalists—six from each conference—were chosen by a panel of NBA legends and voted on by their peers for their efforts both on and off the court as a teammate, mentor and role model.
It’s a great award honoring two NBA Hall of Famers—whose story you can read more about here—so don’t miss the announcement prior to the tip of Game 2 on Sunday.
Player to Watch: LeBron James
Most times, the reigning MVP puts up a triple-double in the regular season or playoffs his team wins, but he’s now just 1-2 when posting at least 10 points, 10 assists and 10 rebounds on the biggest stage.
Although his teams have gone 34-12 overall and 7-3 in the postseason when LBJ posts a triple-double, his 18 points, 18 boards and 10 dimes didn’t result in a victory over the Spurs.
It’ll be interesting to see how he adjusts for Game 2, as these minor changes could be the difference between a win and devastating loss.
Expect James to come out looking to score more, as the reigning attempted just 16 field goals on Thursday and only hit one of his five tries from beyond the arc.
LeBron needs to be more assertive and take highly efficient shots at the rim, as his team simply can’t win when he’s reduced to a glorified jump shooter, facilitator and rebounder.
To truly be the best and help his squad achieve success, James has to attack the hoop early and often during Game 2.
Prediction: Heat Will Run Away with Victory
The Heat haven’t lost two games in a row since falling to the Indiana Pacers and Portland Trail Blazers back on January 8 and 10, respectively, contests that were notably on the road.
They haven’t suffered two consecutive home losses since dropping Game 2 of the 2011 NBA Finals and watching the Dallas Mavericks celebrate a championship in AmericanAirlines Arena in Game 6.
Considering no home team has ever botched the first two games of the finals and gone on to win, the Heat now find themselves in full-blown desperation mode.
While Miami fell in Game 1 of the 2012 Finals to the Oklahoma City Thunder, it happened as underdogs on the road. The club quickly bounced back to win Game 2 and finished the series off with three consecutive wins in South Beach.
With all the motivation needed and a major wake-up call provided by Tony Parker and the rest of the Spurs in Game 1, James, Wade, Chris Bosh and co. should be able to come out firing on Sunday night.
This is a championship-caliber squad that has been to three consecutive finals and full well knows the stakes. The options are to either win tonight or once again suffer the agonizing pain of defeat under the brightest lights in the NBA.
Expect the Heat to choose the former.
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Heat vs. Spurs: Complete Gambling Guide for Game 1 of 2013 NBA Finals
The 2013 NBA Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat tips off tonight and it should be nothing short of thrilling for both casual fans and hardcore basketball addicts.
Perhaps the only way to ratchet up the intensity of the viewing experience would be to place a wager down on the action, whether it’s friendly or for big bucks at a sportsbook.
Either way you’re going to want to come out a winner, and I have you covered. Keep reading to find out when to catch the game, see the result of the regular season series, get an updated look at the game line and point total, check out predictions on the outcome and more.
When: Thursday, June 6, at 9 p.m. ET
Where: AmericanAirlines Arena, Miami, Fla.
Watch: ABC
Regular-season series: Heat swept 2-0.
Spread: Heat -5 (via ScoresAndOdds.com)
Take the points and even consider placing a bet on the Spurs to win on the money line.
At +175, it’s a solid value for a team that is coming off 10 days of rest and has the discipline to open up the Finals with a road victory.
In 2012, the Oklahoma City Thunder hosted the Heat in Game 1 and ran away in the fourth quarter. OKC wound up covering the five-point spread and winning 105-94. One likely reason for that was the grueling seven-game series that Miami had to go through against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals.
The eventual champions were clearly exhausted and needed a wake-up call in the form of a double-digit loss to get motivated and sweep through the next four games.
With the Indiana Pacers extending the Heat to seven games in the 2013 ECF, expect more of the same in this series.
The Spurs observed as Indy pinpointed the weak areas of the defending champs and constantly attacked. Although the South Beach-based club eventually won out, its faults have been exposed.
Don’t be surprised when San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich has his players executing a spotless offensive game plan from the inside out and pulling away with a huge underdog upset in Game 1.
Over/Under: 188.5 (via ScoresAndOdds.com)
Lean towards the over here, as both teams are primed to score a ton of points.
The Heat and Spurs both utilize an extremely similar offensive attack that relies on a copious amount of screens, quick and unselfish ball movement, deadly three-point shooting from the corners and highly efficient shots at the rim.
These clubs both executed variations of this system against the two best defenses in the league in the conference finals, as the Spurs swept past the Memphis Grizzlies and the Heat found a way to get it done against the Pacers.
While San Antonio and Miami are both stout defensive teams, they lack the personnel and have other flaws that do not allow them to perform as well as the Griz and Pacers do on that end.
Given that they’ve just gone up against the best and succeeded, these offenses are clearly firing on all cylinders and should be near impossible to stop on Thursday night.
Expect this to be a barnburner that goes well over the total, with my prediction for the final score being Spurs 101 – Heat 98.
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NBA Playoffs 2013: Complete Preview and Analysis for Heat vs. Pacers Game 6
At the risk of hyperbole, ESPN Classic has shifted the entire way we talk about individual sporting events.
Great series aren’t just great series anymore. They’re the “instant classics.” The ones we’ll be watching 30 years from now in our super-powered iCar that drives itself and hovers above ground.
Make no mistake, we’ll be watching this Eastern Conference Finals in three decades. The Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers have put on the best show of this postseason; a nightly war that provides something for everyone.
There has been the X’s and O’s battle between Frank Vogel and Erik Spoelstra, one so good that it could satiate the appetite of any NBA nerd. LeBron James‘ nightly assault on the NBA record book has been marvelous for the mainstream fan simply looking to catch their favorite star. Roy Hibbert‘s bruising play down on the low block is a throwback to those fans depressed about the “death” of the big man.
Even hockey fans who accidentally flipped over during an intermission almost got to see a fight between Chris Andersen and Tyler Hansbrough.
Game 6 is appointment television. You know that, I know that. Whether it’s at a bar with friends or alone in your office with a Twitter screen and a Sam Adams, anyone who’s remotely interested in the NBA will be watching every second of this action.
With that in mind, let’s get a little more serious and preview Saturday night’s Game 6.
Game Information
When: Saturday, June 1 at 8:30 p.m. ET
Where: Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis
Watch: TNT
Team Previews/Questions
Pacers: Will They Make Necessary Offensive Adjustments?
Heading into Game 5, the most under-covered aspect of this series had been the Pacers’ offensive brilliance. Much had been made of Roy Hibbert, his intimidation on the low block and how Indiana’s defense was shaping the series, but the numbers didn’t back that narrative up. Hibbert was and continues to be superb defensively; it was just his offensive contributions that proved more necessary.
Indiana scored 111.3 points per 100 possessions in the series’ first four games. That number was nearly 11 points better than the Pacers’ regular-season total and would have bested the Heat for the league lead, per NBA.com.
The small sample size and Indiana’s history of offensive cratering (see: Game 5 vs. New York and Game 3 vs. Atlanta) led some to believe a massive regression was coming for the Pacers.
The problem was no one knew how that regression would come forth.
Hibbert, a 7’2″ mass of size and strength, had pulverized the Heat’s big men over and over down low. Chris Andersen and Chris Bosh, his two primary defenders, weren’t going to eat spinach and suddenly Popeye themselves enough strength to stop Hibbert. He continually backed any and all Miami defenders down, seemingly gliding backward as if he was working against a chair.
Even when Erik Spoelstra made adjustments—like having Miami defenders front Hibbert every chance they got—it proved fruitless.
Frank Vogel made a counter-adjustment of his own, running a series of pick-and-rolls designed merely to get the defender moving a step behind, only for the ball-handler to swing the ball to the weak side after Hibbert crashed down into the low block.
It was a never-ending series of fruitless adjustments for Spoelstra. Well, until Game 5 that is. The Heat held Indiana to a paltry 90.2 points per 100 possessions on Thursday night, a number so low the league-worst Wizards called to give their condolences. The Heat’s defense on Thursday was comparable to the first two rounds, where they rendered Milwaukee and Chicago hapless offensively.
The key difference was that this wasn’t a return to the way Miami played defense before.
On principle, the Heat are the hardest-trapping team in the league. They crash hard on pick-and-rolls, trapping the ball-handler and looking to force turnovers. It was a successful strategy. Only three teams forced turnovers at a higher rate than Miami during the regular season, and that excellence only continued during the playoffs, per NBA.com.
By Game 4, though, Indiana had figured out how to break those traps—mainly by keeping most pick-and-roll plays in the hands of George Hill and Paul George, who are tall enough to pass over a trap. In turn, Indiana was able to do pretty much whatever it wanted—weak-side post-ups for Hibbert, rolls to the middle of the floor and countless other successful sets.
So in Game 5, the Heat relaxed their trapping tendencies. Instead of crashing hard on the ball-handler, Miami bigs laid back a bit, just below the three-point line. That’s a key variation, because it’s more aggressive and allows for a quick return to the roll man, cutting off the passing lane while simultaneously eliminating the need for extra help.
The result was an unmitigated success. Hibbert still got his, scoring 22 points and grabbing six rebounds. But his successes were surrounded by unmitigated failures, even when the shot went through the basket.
The result of this play below is a Paul George three-pointer. That’s ultimately irrelevant. What’s noticeable is how out-of-sorts Indiana looks on the possession.
Hibbert sets up looking to make a screen for Hill on the left side before darting to where Sam Young is waiting on the other wing—standard action. But the combination of Hibbert‘s bad screen and Andersen’s reluctance to take the bait forces a jumbled possession with Hibbert posting up at around 20 feet.
This was an adjustment illustrated throughout the game, often leading to bad shots late in the shot clock and more contested looks for Hibbert.
There are a couple ways Indiana can adjust, both of which had flashes show up in Game 5. The first is quite simple: Vogel can have his ball-handler “reject” Hibbert‘s screen, taking the ball to the weak side of the possession and hoping to create dribble penetration. Miami has grown so accustomed to this pet action that it’s easy for the defender to cheat, as Dwyane Wade does just enough here to have George blow by him.
The other “answer” provides perhaps my favorite play of Game 5. It’s not something Indiana can run on every possession, but George’s false flash to the wing followed by a quick cut was particularly inspired.
If Vogel can implement a couple other wrinkles to go along with the ones he’s already shown, the Pacers offense should recover. Perhaps they won’t score at a league-best rate, but no one could have expected that to continue anyway.
Heat: What Trick Will LeBron Pull Out of the Bag Next?
If LeBron James had any doubters left coming into this series, he has most certainly vanquished them by now.
James, despite Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade struggling to make consistent impact, has been an impenetrable force of excellence in every game. He’s hit a game-winning shot, recorded a triple-double, been a partner in undoubtedly the funniest double-flop in NBA history and played his keister off on both ends of the court.
It’s been nothing short of marvelous to watch. LeBron, with the entire basketball world laser-focused on his every move, has continuously proven he’s unstoppable, breaking out nearly every piece of his ever-growing arsenal in the process.
Early in the series—especially Game 1—LeBron went into Cleveland mode. He was a facilitator out of the pick-and-roll, running through a never-ending series of high screens and getting to the rim. Birdman can attribute almost his entire 16-point effort to last-second feeds from James as he went barreling toward the rim.
Then came LeBron shape-shifting into a dominant force on the low block. His pulverization of George in Game 3 became something of legend, as media types and other players fell over themselves lauding James. Adding the post game was always seen as something of a final puzzle piece for LeBron, and seeing him use the refined moves to destroy a defender as good as George was inspiring.
Indiana countered in Game 4, doubling James hard on the block and trying to keep Hibbert as close to the play as possible. Hibbert has been the one thing James hasn’t quite been able to navigate this series. Everyone has already made that point with a million stats, but whatever. It bears noting just how good of a LeBron deterrent Hibbert has been.
Otherwise? Indiana has been listless, as James’ assemblage of skills continues to reign supreme.
On Thursday, James broke out a new one and became the most talented catch-and-shoot player in NBA history. Spoelstra, instead of having his best player attack the rim as a ball-handler, used him as a screener for a ton of pick-and-rolls and pick-and-pops. That was especially the case in James’ unbelievable third quarter, where he went 4-for-4 shooting out of pick-and-roll sets, whether as a screener or ball-handler.
For the most part, these are shots that the Pacers would love LeBron to take. Of his 26 shots on Thursday night, just five came from the restricted area. Nineteen were from either the midrange or beyond the arc, where he took zero from the coveted corner.
The difference was he made the shots and looked fully comfortable doing so. There’s a difference between shooting passive jumpers and aggressive ones. LeBron in the 2011 NBA Finals was shooting scared prayers and hoping they went in.
LeBron in the 2013 Eastern Conference Finals is just showing off another piece in the puzzle.
LeBron still attacked out of the pick-and-roll as a ball-handler, went down on the low block and ran those beautiful curl screens where he comes across the elbow with an unstoppable amount of steam. That was all there. It’s always there.
That’s the point. And Indiana knows it’s merely hoping for an “off” night of 25-5-5.
What’s interesting, at least from a psychological sense, is that LeBron has to know by now that he’s on his own. Wade has turned in less than 14 points per game in these playoffs, transforming into something of an Andre Iguodala—without the athleticism and defensive skills.
And Chris Bosh has just been abysmal. The only time a big should be averaging only one more rebound per game than three-point shot taken is if his name is Matt Bonner. Brook Lopez looks at that defensive rebounding effort and thinks it’s abhorrent.
With Shane Battier and Ray Allen also you-know-whatting the bed from beyond the arc, you have to wonder whether LeBron spends his nights trying to remember Sasha Pavlovic’s number. Mario Chalmers, surprisingly enough, has been James’ best second banana in this series. He got to the rim well in Game 5, showing off a nifty hesitation dribble that looks like it came straight out of Mike Conley game tape.
As Russell Westbrook’s injury proved this postseason, it’s awfully hard to win without an elite second banana. And yet here LeBron is, on the precipice of leading Miami to its third straight NBA Finals appearance.
The bag of tricks will again be out on Saturday night. I can’t wait to find out what he chooses.
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NBA Mock Draft 2013: Complete Forecast for Every First-Round Pick
It’s shorter than the NFL draft, far more accessible than the MLB or NHL version and the players drafted are far more likely to make an impact immediately than in other sports. It’s the NBA draft, and it’s a blast!
With the entire draft order now set, a clearer picture of how the board may shake out is taking shape. While this draft lacks a true top player and next year’s draft promises to be much deeper, there are still excellent players to be had.
Let’s break down where they’ll end up.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky
The Cavs have one of the most promising young backcourts in the league in Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters. But with a new emphasis on defense sure to follow coach Mike Brown into town, adding a dynamic young shot-blocker like Noel with this pick is the most logical move.
Does Noel’s offensive game need a ton of work? Yes. Is his injury a concern? Sure. But after averaging 10.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 4.4 blocks per game, there isn’t a more dynamic defensive presence on the block in this draft.
The trio of Noel, Irving and Waiters could develop into a one of the league’s best down the road. This draft class may not have a consensus top pick, but the Cavs will be very happy with this selection.
2. Orlando Magic: Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
The thinking at this pick seems to be divided into two schools of thought: address the top need at point guard by selecting Trey Burke, or select the top player overall since there are a number of needs to address in Orlando. I say the team goes the latter route and takes McLemore, who I would argue is the top prospect in this class.
3. Washington Wizards: Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown
Porter may not be spectacular in any area, but he does everything well. He can defend multiple positions (and does so well), runs the floor, can hit outside jumpers, sets up his teammates and crashes the boards. He’ll be a great Swiss Army knife for the Wizards.
4. Charlotte Bobcats: Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
Bennett may be a bit of a tweener, as he’s not quite big enough to handle the 4 and not quite a natural 3, but he has the athleticism and ability to score to fit in somewhere. The Bobcats will find a role for him and be glad to add another offensive weapon.
5. Phoenix Suns: Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana
The Suns could really use a shooter from outside, but I don’t see how the team can pass on an athletic freak like Oladipo if he’s available. His offensive game will need work, yes, but he’s the draft’s best on-ball defender, and he’ll be a dangerous weapon on the break.
6. New Orleans Pelicans: Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
I really don’t see Austin Rivers as the point guard of the future, and while Greivis Vasquez was very good this year, he isn’t a dynamic playmaker or scorer like Burke.
The Michigan star won just about every award out there this year—and for good reason. He averaged 18.6 points and 6.7 assists per game and led Michigan to the NCAA title game. He’s a smart player as well, knowing when to take over a game himself and when to involve his teammates.
In Burke and Anthony Davis, the Pelicans will have a very nice inside-outside game, along with a dangerous scorer in Eric Gordon (if he can ever stay healthy). Things are looking up for New Orleans.
7. Sacramento Kings: Alex Len, C, Maryland
The Kings don’t lack for players who look to find their shot. What this team needs is another powerful presence in the post or perhaps a replacement for DeMarcus Cousins, who talent is no longer overshadowing the headaches he causes.
8. Detroit Pistons: Shabazz Muhammad, SF, UCLA
The Pistons are going to luck out here, as their biggest need (small forward) will coincide with the best player available, Shabazz Muhammad. The added bonus is that Muhammad is the best pure scorer in this draft—another need for a team that averaged just 94.9 points per game, 22nd in the NBA.
Muhammad was a bit of a disappointment in his one season at UCLA. While he didn’t find any difficulties scoring (17.9 PPG), he didn’t really contribute in any other area for the team and often displayed a selfish and occasionally simply poor attitude.
But in truth, his game is probably more suited to the NBA, and his talent is unquestionable. His drop will be the Pistons’ gain, as the team will get a stud at No. 8.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves: C.J. McCollum, G, Lehigh
The Timberwolves need players who can shoot the ball, and McCollum can flat-out score the rock. Next to Ricky Rubio in the backcourt, McCollum could end up being a sneaky Rookie of the Year candidate.
10. Portland Trail Blazers: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
Damian Lillard will get a running mate in the backcourt in Caldwell-Pope, an athletic scorer with good size (6’6″) at the shooting guard position.
11. Philadelphia 76ers: Cody Zeller, C, Indiana
Zeller will likely move to power forward in the NBA, a position the team desperately needs to fill. And hey, with Andrew Bynum’s Philly future up in the air, he could always slide over to center as well. This is an easy pick for the Sixers.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Toronto Raptors): Dario Saric, F, Croatia
At this year’s draft, the Thunder can afford to go for potential over immediate production. Saric is a smooth forward who passes well and has immense upside. The team can stash him for a season or two and let him develop in the mold of the San Antonio Spurs.
13. Dallas Mavericks: Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
The Mavericks really need a point guard, and Carter-Williams is a steal here. With excellent size for the position (6’6″) and a facilitating mindset, he’s the perfect fit for Dallas.
14. Utah Jazz: Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany
The Jazz, in desperate need of a point guard, will probably be disappointed to see Carter-Williams snatched up one pick before they select. But the consolation prize will be pretty sweet, as the team will land an athletic point who has been compared to Rajon Rondo. Not a bad second option, huh?
15. Milwaukee Bucks: Allen Crabbe, SG, California
The Bucks could have major turnover in the backcourt this offseason, as Brandon Jennings (restricted) and J.J. Redick (unrestricted) are free agents and Monta Ellis can opt out of the last year of his contract. With the possibility that one, if not all three, will be gone this summer, the Bucks will address the guard position with Crabbe, a natural scorer.
16. Boston Celtics: Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville
The Celtics need to add depth to the frontcourt, plain and simple, and Dieng is a beast in the paint who would instantly upgrade the Celtics down low.
17. Atlanta Hawks: Mason Plumlee, C, Duke
Plumlee can probably play the 4 or 5 in the NBA, a plus for a team that likely will be losing Josh Smith this summer and would love to pair Al Horford with a talented running mate in the paint. Plumlee doesn’t have star potential, but he’ll be a very solid player for years to come.
18. Atlanta Hawks (via Houston Rockets): Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State
Franklin will give the team options at both shooting guard and small forward, and he’ll be tough to pass up here for the Hawks, despite the team’s crowded backcourt.
19. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Los Angeles Lakers): Kelly Olynyk, C, Gonzaga
The Cavs added a big man who will become a defensive force in the NBA. Now, they’ll pair him with a finesse scorer in Olynyk who’s likely to transition to power forward in the NBA. The pair makes this a solid draft for the Cavs.
20. Chicago Bulls: Rudy Gobert, C, France
If Gobert drops to the Bulls, the team will snatch him up with nary a thought otherwise. Needing depth down low behind Joakim Noah, the team will gladly add Gobert, a talented center who could be off the board well before this.
21. Utah Jazz (via Golden State Warriors): Archie Goodwin, SG, Kentucky
Is he raw? Yes. Would he have entered the draft if next year’s class wasn’t so stacked? Probably not. But the Jazz will gladly develop this project because his upside is huge and the team will happily continue upgrading the backcourt.
22. Brooklyn Nets: Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh
Brook Lopez needs some support down low. While Adams is a bit of a project, he’s a physical specimen who should at least give the Nets 10-15 quality minutes off the bench in relief of Lopez.
23. Indiana Pacers: Tony Mitchell, PF, North Texas
This pick is a must if David West signs elsewhere, but even so, Mitchell would provide a solid backup for the power forward. Mitchell is a beast down low and has a ton of upside.
24. New York Knicks: Glen Rice Jr., SF, Georgia Tech
Rice is a fantastic prospect, and he eased character concerns in his one season in the NBA Developmental League after being kicked out of Georgia Tech. He’ll provide some depth for the Knicks on the wing, who don’t have many great options behind Carmelo Anthony at the 3.
25. Los Angeles Clippers: Shane Larkin, PG, Miami
If Chris Paul departs, the Clippers will hope the athletic Larkin can step in and become a nice replacement. If Paul remains, the team will likely have to move Eric Bledsoe and Larkin will have time to grow and will provide excellent depth at the position.
26. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Memphis Grizzlies): Sergey Karasev, SF, Russia
Why not add another shooter? Karasev is NBA-ready and may be the best perimeter shooter in the draft. The Timberwolves are going to be a lot of fun to watch next season after their two first-round selections.
27. Denver Nuggets: Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Michigan
Hardaway will provide some cover at the 2 in case Andre Iguodala departs this summer, bringing an intensity and perimeter game that will fit in well in Denver.
28. San Antonio Spurs: Jeff Withey, C, Kansas
Withey just feels like a good fit for the Spurs, a proficient shot-blocker that can spell Tiago Splitter and make opponents think twice about driving the lane.
29. Oklahoma City Thunder: Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF, Greece
Why not make it two projects in the first round? Antetokounmpo has a lot of potential, but he’s really, really unproven at just 18 years of age. Consider this first round a nod to the future for OKC.
30. Phoenix Suns (via Miami Heat): C.J. Leslie, PF, North Carolina State
Leslie can play either the 3 or 4, has plus athleticism and has a very high ceiling. He’s battled inconsistency, but in Phoenix he’ll be given time to work out the kinks.
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Sacramento Kings sale to Ranadive group complete (Yahoo! Sports)
A new owner is in place. A new coach is on the way. And for the first time in 14 years, Sacramento Kings fans can celebrate a new era.
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NBA Playoff Schedule 2013: Complete Viewing Guide for Game 5 of Pacers-Heat
The San Antonio Spurs have advanced to the 2013 NBA Finals, defeating the Memphis Grizzlies in four games to reach the next stage of their title pursuit. In the Eastern Conference, however, the series between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers rages on.
The question is, when and where can you watch Game 5 of their heated Eastern Conference Finals clash?
The Heat and Pacers split the first two games of this series, with Indiana in position to win both times in Miami. Not only did they lose on a buzzer-beater in overtime during Game 1, but the Pacers also won 97-93 in Game 2.
In Game 3, however, the Pacers failed to show up.
Miami committed just five turnovers and made 54.5 percent of their field goals en route to a 114-96 road win. Dwyane Wade led the charge with 18 points and eight assists, while Udonis Haslem tallied 17 points and seven rebounds on 8-of-9 shooting.
Roy Hibbert went for 20 points and 17 rebounds, while David West added 21 and 10 boards, but the Pacers’ bench simply couldn’t keep the pace.
In Game 5, both teams will look to gain one final edge in this series. With the Spurs looming and granted the opportunity to rest and study their opposition, neither team will want this series to go on too much longer.
So who can take the next step toward greatness?
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat, Game 5
Time: Thursday, May 30 at 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Series Record: Miami Heat 2, Indiana Pacers 1
The Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat enter this game with the luxury and overwhelming burden of knowing who their opponent would be in the NBA Finals. With this in mind, neither team will be too inclined to grant the aging Spurs too much time to rest.
The question is, who will rise to the occasion?
The Heat haven’t lost two home games in one postseason series since the 2011 NBA Finals, when they lost the series to the Dallas Mavericks. With this in mind, it’s quite clear that the Pacers will have an uphill battle to close this series out.
Just don’t call it impossible.
Indiana has won a postseason game in Miami for the second consecutive year, which displays their fearless nature. With that being said, the Heat remain the favored squad entering this game and have talent that is superior to the Pacers’.
When it comes to a rivalry game, however, one thing is clear: Anything can happen.
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Parker, Spurs complete sweep of Grizzlies
MEMPHIS — The best season in franchise history ended with a resounding thud for the Grizzlies. Led by a relentless Tony Parker, San Antonio answered every question Memphis posed in the Western Conference finals and finished the sweep with a 93-86 victory. Here are three observations on how the Spurs solved the Grizzlies and rode their point guard to the NBA Finals.
1. San Antonio owned the paint against a team that makes its living there.
Memphis had figured out a way to win without a premier scorer (Rudy Gay), pounding it out since February with an inside-out mindset that started with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol down low. The Spurs shut that down. San Antonio outscored Memphis 52-32 in the paint Monday to complete rare back-to-back wins here. Plenty of those were easy layups.Tony Parker, who poured in 37 points, attributed a lot of that to the first two games of the series, a 3-point barrage in Game 1 and his 18 assists Game 2.
They were not committing as much on me when I was penetrating because they were
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NBA Playoff Schedule 2013: Complete Viewing Guide for Heat vs. Pacers Game 3
What a difference 48 hours makes.
When the Indiana Pacers walked out of AmericanAirlines Arena dejected, having allowed the game’s best player to drive a stake into their heart for a game-winning basket in Game 1, it looked like the underdog had blown its chance.
The Pacers are good, but you don’t get many opportunities to steal a game at home from a Miami Heat team that had won 46 of its last 49 games coming into Friday night. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are too great. You give them your best punch and they come away unscathed? Expect a size-15 boot coming straight to your gullet for the next three contests.
At least that’s how the theory went prior to Friday night.
The Pacers, again buoyed by their stifling defense, again played Miami to a standstill until the game’s final minute. Only this time, it was James turning the ball over instead of driving for a game-winning layup and George Hill knocking down cold-blooded free throws the same way Paul George did in Game 1—only these sent Indiana to a 97-93 victory.
The old saying goes that a series never begins until a road team wins. Anyone who watched Game 1 knows that theory is poppycock. Heat-Pacers was going to be a redux of their epic 2012 series on steroids from the moment the first tip-off came off a referee’s hands.
What Game 2 proved is that Indiana isn’t just a pesky gnat in Miami’s face the same way the Bulls were in Round 2. Theses Pacers can actually win this thing. With just hours remaining until Game 3 gets underway, let’s take a look at everything you need to know about Sunday’s contest.
Game Information
When: Sunday, May 26 at 8:30 p.m. ET
Where: Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis
Watch: TNT
Key Storylines to Watch
The Hibbert Effect
Nearly the entire conversation following Game 1 was about Frank Vogel‘s decision to sit Roy Hibbert on the Heat’s final offensive possession. You know what happened next. LeBron James caught an entry pass at the top of the key, morphed into Voltron mode and blew past Paul George for an easy layup all in the span of 2.2 seconds.
The theory goes had Hibbert been in the game instead of Sam Young, the help defender on James’ drive, then perhaps Indiana is heading back home ahead 2-0 for the series. Hibbert is one of the league’s best interior defenders—if not the best—and his presence alone could have been enough to intimidate James.
Let us not go down that rabbit hole again. I’ve said my piece on the matter—that we’re judging the result, not the process of the decision—and stand by what I said. While Vogel‘s decision isn’t one that I would have made, it was completely understandable for anyone who understands the defensive X’s and O’s that went into that scenario.
What we are going to discuss, though, is Hibbert‘s utter obliteration of Miami in Game 2. The seven-footer was on the floor for 39 minutes of the contest, including crunch time, and made almost every one of them count. He scored 29 points and grabbed 10 rebounds, while taking advantage of Miami’s smaller defenders for a 10-of-15 scoring rate.
Through two games—small sample size alert—Hibbert is averaging 24 points, 9.5 rebounds and is shooting 57.6 percent from the floor.
We knew coming into the series that the Heat had no answer for Hibbert. He’s too strong for Chris Bosh, too long for Chris Andersen and too everything for the decomposing Udonis Haslem. No one expected him to be this good. Hibbert shot a dreadful 44.8 percent during the regular season and his 53.6 percent rate at the rim was the worst in the league against centers.
Outside of trying experimental human growth procedures to create a seven-footer, Miami’s only options are to hope for a regression to the mean or double-team Hibbert whenever it can.
And of course we just went about 400 words without discussing Hibbert‘s defense—akin to going an equal length on Chris Rock and not mentioning Bigger & Blacker. Hibbert‘s rim protection was the underrated story by the talking heads coming into this series, but it’s became the overarching theme since the moment Vogel left him on the bench.
As I noted before Game 2, Hibbert wasn’t at his best on Wednesday night. The Heat made 26 baskets in the restricted area while shooting about 73 percent, per NBA.com. They were able to do this by running right at Hibbert after high pick-and-rolls and then dishing to his man at the last possible second.
Miami made 10 buckets off those types of plays in Game 1 on 12 attempts. They made one such basket on Friday, per Synergy Sports. Part of the reason for that is the Pacers had David West be much more aggressive on his hedge than he was in Game 2. Instead of quickly flashing toward the ball-handler, an Indiana staple, West was stayed out on plays involving James and Wade for an extra beat or two.
That allows Hibbert to stay in position longer and for Wade or James’ original defender to have more time to get back on their man. The result was near-catastrophic for the Heat. They still shot 66.7 percent on shots inside the restricted area, but they took only 24—a figure two less than the amount they made in Game 1.
Things are going to keep being lean offensively if the Heat can’t find a way to adjust going forward.
Can Anyone Find Dwyane Wade?
Because his teammates would sure love to know where he’s at. In the first two games of this series, Wade has looked like an absolute shell of himself. He scored a nondescript 19 points in Game 1, getting to the free-throw line just four times in 41 minutes before fouling out. While he gets credit for 10 of those points coming in the fourth quarter and overtime, Wade seemed noticeably hobbled by a bone bruise in his knee.
Wade was even more absent in Game 2. The Artist Formerly Known as Flash scored just 14 points on 6-of-14 shooting, including a fat goose-egg in the fourth quarter. For the series, he’s now averaging 16.5 points, six rebounds and five assists per game—Andre Iguodala numbers without the defense.
(By the way, these are numbers that are actually better than Wade’s postseason averages—for whatever that’s worth.)
Wade’s most notable play of this entire series was his dirty elbow on Lance Stephenson late in the fourth quarter.
While there have been righteous calls for Wade, long one of the league’s sneaky-dirty players, to get suspended, I think it’s more important we cover why No. 3 went for the elbow—or at least my theory on the subject.
I watched tape on each of Miami’s fourth-quarter offensive possessions. Wade, when actually involved in possessions, acted a little more than a decoy. He would run a pseudo ball-handler role for all of about three seconds before playing hot potato with the ball to a shooter. When Wade made his one and only attempt at making a dribble-drive move—which was rooted in George Hill being stuck on him for a possession—he threw up an ugly jumper that went clanging off the rim.
That’s been the story for Wade this entire series—hell, the entire postseason for that matter. In the first two games of this series, Wade has been absolutely hounded by Stephenson and unable to make headway in the paint. According to Synergy Sports’ tracking data, Wade has taken just nine shots as a pick-and-roll ball-handler in this series. Six of them have been jumpers. That’s an awful rate that doesn’t even account for the innumerable amount of times Wade passed out of similar situations.
My theory is that it was a frustration foul. That after being defeated by Stephenson up and down the floor for the series’ first two games, Wade just snapped.
The Heat better hope that frustration leads to better performances going forward. LeBron is the greatest player in the world, but he cannot win an entire series by himself—at least not against this team. The Pacers make sound defensive adjustments on a game-by-game basis. If Wade isn’t healthy enough to get into the lane with Stephenson guarding him, he’s essentially a non-entity.
In other words, Flash can’t only show flashes of being Flash (sorry). Wade has to show up for Miami to have a chance at breaking this Indiana defense, and the result could be dire if he doesn’t.
Prediction
When you have a team as talented as Miami does and a coach as smart as Erik Spoelstra, things tend to course-correct quickly. The Heat were flummoxed by the Bulls’ stalwart defense in Round 2, but adjusted to the ugly style and slowed down pace to take the next four games.
They won’t be doing that to Indiana. The Pacers are undefeated at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in these playoffs, having won four of the six contests by double digits and each by at least seven points. While the Knicks and Hawks aren’t anywhere near Miami’s level, Indiana’s proud basketball reputation has reared its head in the postseason and a near-collegiate atmosphere has broken out at games.
Expect more of the same on Sunday. Everyone in this Pacers organization, from Vogel to Hibbert to the man pouring Downy on players’ shorts after the games know what a special opportunity this is. To go up 2-1 on the defending champions would create a riotous reaction from fans and hundreds of thousands of words to be spilled on the interwebs and dead trees.
One problem: It’s not going to happen. The two games in this series have been separated by a margin of three points, yet one could barely say the Heat played at a “C” level offensively for either contest. Credit of course goes to Indiana’s stalwart defense and Wade’s ailing knee for making that so. We might never see Miami at its optimum potential whatsoever in this series; the Pacers are that good.
But if there’s one game where we’ll see a reasonable facsimile of that top-ranked regular season offense, it’ll be Sunday. I normally avoid all talks of feelings and motivation and yada yada yada.
I think we get a classic LeBron game here and Wade shows flashes. Call it a feeling or what have you, but that’s what predictions are for. Indiana will keep this game close, as it will just about every game in this series. But the Heat will course-correct a bit here and come away with something resembling a “blowout” win for this series.
And by that I mean they’ll win by more than five points.
Score Prediction: Heat 99, Pacers 92
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