Early Predictions for Top Restricted NBA Free Agents in 2013 Offseason
The NBA’s top restricted free agents during the 2013 offseason won’t be given nearly as much attention as their unrestricted brethren. Nonetheless, they are still talented players whom NBA general managers will look to target this summer in order to improve.
Big names like Chris Paul, Dwight Howard and Josh Smith don’t fall into the “restricted” category in 2013, but a handful of viable NBA players do.
The Milwaukee Bucks will have the final say regarding Brandon Jennings’ NBA destiny, so another NBA team would have to step up with a big offer to try and pry him away.
More often than not, restricted free agents end up staying put if their teams have the financial capability to keep them in town. So will the restricted free agents in 2013 remain with their current teams, or switch uniforms as their careers move forward?
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James Harden vows to help the Houston Rockets recruit free agents
The Houston Rockets have found the face of their franchise. Despite not being able to take advantage of the weaker-than-usual Oklahoma City Thunder in the playoffs, the Rockets feel that they are a team on the rise.
Last off-season, the initial thought was that Jeremy Lin was imported to Texas to give the Rockets a brand to anchor their logo on.
That did not exactly work out as James Harden rode into town and took over both on and off the court.
Harden’s combo platter of charisma and skill have rendered him a big time player.
As Houston moves on to seek new pieces to their puzzle, Harden says that he is ready to recruit free agents to help their cause.
Please click here to read this story and watch a dramatic James Harden video.
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Do the Mavericks have a chance at top free agents?
DALLAS — A working thesis: The Mavs’ No. 1 free-agency target this summer is Chris Paul. Besides moving Heaven and Earth to bring the stellar point guard to Dallas, what financial moves would the Mavs need to make in order to clear the room for a max contract? If you know the way the rules work, it’s easier than you think:
On July 1, Dwight Howard hits the free-agent market. So does Chris Paul. At this point, the Dallas Mavericks are wisely not playing their hand in regard to which player they prefer … and as pipedreamy as it is, we think it’s even worth spending the time to consider the dollars, cents and moving parts to attempting to acquire both.
We know, we know. Ridiculous. But we’ll roll up our sleeves and put in the work, just in case, OK?
For the moment, let’s theorize that Dallas has to choose which doorstep to plant itself on come midnight July 1. For the moment, let’s theorize that the lucky potential partner is Paul.
(We’re very comfortable with that Paul-over
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Chris Paul Rumors: Latest Updates and Speculation on Free Agent’s Future
Chris Paul and the Los Angeles Clippers completed the franchise’s first-ever 50-win campaign in the 2012-13 NBA season, but a first-round playoff exit to the Memphis Grizzlies has rumors swirling about whether or not the All-NBA point guard will choose to stay in Los Angeles this offseason.
Paul is a free agent, and there are 29 other teams clamoring to get their hands on him.
As Alex Kennedy of HoopsWorld simply put it on Twitter, let the CP3 trade rumors begin.
ESPN NBA analyst Bill Simmons helped spark the rumor mill the morning after LA’s loss to Memphis, the first of what promises to be a circus-like approach to figuring out what Paul’s future holds this offseason:
Paul averaged 16.9 points, 9.7 steals and a league-high 2.4 steals per game during the 2012-13 season, was an All-Star for the sixth time in his career and helped the Clippers hit the 56-win mark in the regular season—good for a No. 4 seed out West and a showdown with the Grizzlies.
After winning the first two games of the series, Paul and the Clippers did not visit the win column again in the 2013 playoffs. The Grizzlies won four straight games to end LA’s season, most recently in Game 6 on Friday night by a 118-105 score.
Paul scored 28 points on 11-of-16 shooting and added eight assists in what was his final game before free agency.
Now, the real fun about his future begins.
If you listen to Paul in the postgame interview above, he doesn’t sound like a man ready to re-up with the Clippers the day that free agency opens—something noted by Mike Bresnahan of the Los Angeles Times via Twitter:
While all free agents give us the normal comments that the decision is one that takes some serious thought and that they aren’t going to rush into anything, Paul’s apparent discomfort with the organization has leaked outside the walls.
That discomfort won’t bother interested teams (h/t Simmons):
Mark Cuban and Dirk Nowitzki are two guys that will be overjoyed to hear the news that Paul is leaning toward weighing his options, and that puts the Dallas Mavericks in the conversation for Paul’s services until he signs with another team.
If you’ll remember, Dallas has been plotting cap space for a move to add Paul and Dwight Howard for quite some time. The two have also been receptive to playing with each other (h/t Matt Moore of CBS Sports), making Dallas an attractive option for both to team up with Nowitzki in a new Big 3.
Dallas cleared out cap space after its 2011 championship season by letting Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler, J.J. Barea and DeShawn Stevenson walk, and they have done so again in preparation for another run at a marquee star with one-year contracts like Chris Kaman, Elton Brand and O.J. Mayo (player option that he will not exercise).
Like Simmons suggests in his tweet with a thinly veiled shot at Del Negro in favor of Dallas’ Rick Carlisle, the level of satisfaction with the coaching staff in LA is also at an all-time low. The Clippers are now 2-8 in 10 playoff games under Del Negro over a two-year span, and LA can’t be happy with his adjustments (or lack thereof) to Memphis in 2013 or San Antonio in 2012.
As Ric Bucher reported on Sulia.com on Saturday, the new coach factor could play a huge role in Paul’s choice to return to LA. If management includes him in a decision, it might help sway his thought process enough to avoid seeking out new employment elsewhere:
I also know that Paul’s control of the franchise, by virtue of the fact the Clippers will do anything to keep him, is nearly absolute. As for the current head coach, Vinny Del Negro, the consensus around the NBA is that this first-round ouster is almost certain to cost him his job.
If Del Negro stays, it’s because Paul wants him to stay and I haven’t heard from anyone that Paul is willing to go to bat for Del Negro in that way. I only hope that over the next few months Paul doesn’t feign that he will have nothing to do with who gets the job next or del Negro not being retained. The only way that could be true is if he tells the Clippers definitively that he is not coming back; otherwise, they are assuredly going to be highly interested in who Paul thinks should run the team.
Paul stands to make more money and will have a longer financial commitment from the Clippers should he choose to stay with Donald Sterling’s franchise. It’s a selling point that will drive conversation on the issue all summer, but it’s not the only factor in play.
Young guns Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are a huge part of LA’s roster, but the rest of the current assortment of players will need replacing soon. Chauncey Billups and Grant Hill didn’t stay healthy this season. Butler is slowing down. Lamar Odom probably isn’t a long-term option. The roster needs work, to say the least, to sustain a winning franchise for the next three to four seasons.
That being said, Paul will have full control of any and all efforts if he stays.
On the flip side, there are franchises that are craving a star. Atlanta, Dallas and others would love to bring Paul in to solve their playmaking woes, and he would carry the mantle of a franchise player in whatever city for which he decides to play.
Recruiting a guy like Howard to join up in a new franchise shouldn’t be considered a farce in each of these guys’ career. Both are aging, both just suffered first-round exits in a city that doesn’t accept that kind of effort and both have expressed interest in going somewhere together before (h/t Moore).
So what will it be, CP3?
Paul has options, is a top-three NBA point guard and shouldn’t be undervalued in this process. He will drive the rumor mill and reporters will do so, too, because he’s simply too good to not be chased in free agency by other teams.
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NBA Free Agents 2013: Players Who Have Boosted Their Stock Down the Stretch
Players can make a lot of dough by turning it on down the stretch of their contract year.
Several 2013 NBA free agents are producing late this season, which should make them highly-coveted players once they hit the market.
These players range from guards to forwards to centers, exhibiting a variety of skills that would intrigue any team.
Here’s a look at players who have boosted their stock down the stretch of the 2012-13 NBA campaign.
Josh Smith, F, Atlanta Hawks
Josh Smith’s shot selection has been questioned for years—and, let’s face it, he’s never going to change in that regard—but, the fact of the matter is, he’s still a very valuable player overall.
Smith has averaged 17.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.3 steals while shooting 47 percent this season, exhibiting the versatility to his game. He’s an asset on both sides of the floor and his ability to defend multiple positions makes him even more valuable.
After trading away Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams—and losing Lou Williams to a season-ending knee injury in January—the Hawks have somehow made it into the playoffs with ease. A large part of that has to do with Smith, who posted a combined 52 points, 18 rebounds, three blocks and five steals against the Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks before injuring his knee against the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday.
Jeff Teague, PG, Atlanta Hawks
After a promising 2011-12 campaign, Jeff Teague has blossomed in his fourth year in the league.
Teague is averaging a career-high 14.9 points and 7.2 assists, as well as 1.5 steals. He’s shooting 45 percent from the floor, 36 percent from downtown and 88 percent from the free-throw line.
That includes averaging 15.3 points, 7.8 assists and 1.5 steals after the All-Star break (he posted 24 points and 10 assists against the Bucks last Friday).
The Wake Forest product has come into his own. While he’s not a star yet, he’s progressing rapidly. Expect the Hawks to do everything in their power to keep the 24-year-old.
David West, PF, Indiana Pacers
At 32 years of age, David West continues to prove that he’s, well, ageless.
West has averaged 17.1 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.0 steals this season while shooting 50 percent from the floor. That includes averaging 16.9 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.3 steals while shooting 54 percent from the field after the All-Star break.
West has provided the scoring, rebounding, defense and leadership pivotal to Indiana’s run to the playoffs this season. He’s a player anybody would love to have, but I don’t think the Pacers are going to let him go in free agency. He’s become such a valuable piece to the team.
Nikola Pekovic, C, Minnesota Timberwolves
After a solid campaign in 2011-12, Nikola Pekovic has blossomed this season, averaging 16.3 points and 8.8 rebounds while shooting 52 percent from the floor. That includes averaging 17.3 points and 8.6 rebounds while shooting 55 percent from the field after the All-Star break.
Among all players who have played more than 29 games this season, Pekovic ranks 23rd in PER, via Basketball-Reference.com. He’s been a bright spot in an otherwise dismal season for the Timberwolves.
Minnesota lacks any legit options to replace Pekovic—who is a restricted free agent this summer—so expect the club to pay him big money in the offseason.
Jarrett Jack, G, Golden State Warriors
The play of Stephen Curry has overshadowed just about everybody on the Warriors, but that’s particularly true for Jarrett Jack.
Jack, who has started 252 games in his career, has been coming off the bench as the Warriors’ Sixth Man. In turn, the combo guard has averaged 12.9 points, 5.6 assists and 3.1 rebounds while shooting 45 percent from the floor and 41 percent from downtown.
The eighth-year veteran’s ability to defend both guard positions has been immensely helpful to a team that has improved on defense this season. He’s also stepped up down the stretch in countless games, displaying his clutch ability.
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2013 NBA Free Agents: Looking Ahead to Players Destined for Max Contracts
Taking a look ahead, the 2013 NBA free-agent class is not a pretty sight.
While littered with talented players, there’s a general feeling that the “marquee” player won’t be available this offseason, particularly because both Dwight Howard and Chris Paul leave money on the table by leaving their Los Angeles franchises.
Heck, Andrew Bynum makes more money staying in Philadelphia.
With that in mind, there’s a good chance NBA general managers are going to get over-eager during the summer free-agent flurry. The new CBA has curbed some of the excessive spending, but you see it without fail every offseason—someone is getting a max contract.
Expect the zeros to start piling up when contract talks begin with the 2013 class of NBA free agents. Here’s a look at several guys that are automatic candidates to receive a max contract from a hungry NBA GM—whether they deserve it or not.
Max Contract Locks
Dwight Howard/Chris Paul
We’ll group Howard and Paul together in this list of max free agents for one reason—both would be putting a lot of uncertainty on their long-term careers by leaving Los Angeles for a new city this offseason.
Paul would surprise us all by leaving the Clippers.
The best point guard in basketball (yes, I said it) is one of the biggest reasons why the Clippers are celebrating a 50-win season in 2012-13, along with young stars Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and the rest of the role players that chip in for the Clips on a nightly basis.
The Clippers are quietly building a new future, and CP3 is at the center of that building effort. There’s little doubt the team will pony up whatever it takes to keep him in town, and if they don’t, another team will.
Same goes for Dwight Howard, going about his business with double-digit point and rebounding totals in another season. The Lakers are thirsting for a playoff spot in the Western Conference, but Howard is the future of this franchise once Kobe Bryant decides to retire (which might not be anytime soon, granted).
For Howard and Paul, who already two of the league’s highest paid players (via HoopsWorld), leaving money on the table doesn’t seem like a smart business decision. By the same token, the uncertainty of the free-agent process these days also avoids any talk of re-signing being a forgone conclusion.
One thing is clear—both are free agents, and both will drain every penny out of management for their services when the time comes.
Brandon Jennings
Jennings is near the end of his rookie contract, and the Bucks will have a chance to match any offer that any other team throws his way.
However, Jennings is the best free agent point guard on the market besides Chris Paul, and teams will have a chance to do something similar to what the Houston Rockets did with Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik’s contracts in the summer of 2012.
By offering a contract that has less money in the first two years and then has closer to $15 million or more in the final two seasons, any team looking to secure Jennings long-term could dissuade Milwaukee from matching this kind of “poison pill” contract.
While those possibilities exist, and Jennings is certainly a candidate to receive max money (somewhere in the neighborhood of $10 million per season), there’s a good chance he could re-up with the Bucks and become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2014 (via Yahoo! Sports).
By doing so, the Bucks would lose all leverage in negotiations, and at the same time be in the position to make Jennings a trade candidate at the deadline next year. It’s a precarious position for both sides, but with a limited market (especially at guard), expect Jennings to get max money.
Max Contract 50-50′s
This tweet should tell you all you need to know about the Josh Smith max contract situation (via Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News).
Bondy’s sentiments likely fall in line with a majority of folks, but there’s a good faction of people (including GMs, as Bondy suggests) that want to make Smith the face of their franchise moving forward. As we’ve discussed, the market is going to be thin, and if you couple that with a somewhat “weak” draft, the potential for a max deal for someone that doesn’t deserve it is high.
Upon closer look, though, Smith has played in 73 games for the Hawks this season, avoided injury yet again and is averaging 17.4 points, 8.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists in over 35 minutes per game in Atlanta.
The Hawks tried to move him at the deadline to no avail, instead opting to keep the salary cap space that will be accrued when free agency opens this summer. Smith has been quoted as saying he’s looking for a max contract (via Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution), and that will probably be the basis for any and all negotiations.
Despite your personal opinions on Smith’s ability to live up to a max deal, he’s likely getting it.
J.R. Smith
We all know what J.R. Smith is—he’s a volume shooter.
Unfortunately for the free-agent market, Smith is also having the best season of his eight-year career with the New York Knicks, averaging over 17 points on close to 42 percent shooting from the field.
With the shooting guard market set to include O.J. Mayo, J.J. Redick, Kevin Martin and Nick Young, there are going to be options out there. Smith also holds a player option with the Knicks—something he might not want to give away after a great season both from an individual and team perspective in the Big Apple.
However, Smith won’t get a chance like this again.
He’s 27 years old. He doesn’t have an added amount of NBA mileage (despite being a high school draft pick) due to coming off the bench for most of his NBA career. And he is in the best offensive period of said tenure in the league.
Smith probably won’t ever get the chance to cash in again, even less so if he waits until other free agents can opt out (LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng, Danny Granger, Evan Turner, among others).
While certainly an off-the-wall name based on shooting percentage and value, Smith’s ability to be clutch down the stretch and get hot at any time could be worth up to $11 million a year for some folks.
Max Contract Dark-Horse Candidates
Utah Jazz PF Paul Millsap
Utah Jazz C Al Jefferson
Sacramento Kings G/F Tyreke Evans
Philadelphia 76ers C Andrew Bynum (injury)
Milwaukee Bucks G Monta Ellis
Dallas Mavericks G O.J. Mayo
For a complete look at the players scheduled to be free agents in the summer of 2013, check out this piece from ESPN.com.
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What Denver Nuggets Should Do with Each of Their Own Free Agents This Offseason
The Denver Nuggets seem to have finally perfected the formula for success this season, leaving management an even tougher task of determining whom to keep or let go this summer.
As the third seed in the Western Conference, the Nuggets have displayed themselves as a team with great chemistry capable of taking down elite squads.
With potentially four players set to hit free agency, Denver’s front office could essentially make or break this team if it re-signs the wrong players.
While postseason success will likely decide whom the team chooses to bring back, some of these players should be re-signed at all costs.
Here is a closer look at the Nuggets’ free-agency situation and whom the team should or should not bring back.
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Free Agents NY Knicks Are Most Worried to Lose in 2013
NBA Free Agency offers most teams a chance to bolster their roster for the season ahead, but for the New York Knicks their lack of cap space could make things a lot tougher.
In 2013, seven Knicks will be hitting free agency, and the cap situation may make it hard to re-sign them all.
Most of the players in question are only on veteran’s minimum contracts this season, but there are a few who’ll be looking for a lot more on the open market after playing key roles in New York.
Here are the top-three players New York should be most worried about losing in free agency this summer.
J.R. Smith
He isn’t a free agent per se, but J.R. Smith is clearly the player the Knicks should be most worried about losing in the offseason.
Smith has a player option for $2.9 million next season, but as a prime candidate for the Sixth Man of the Year award, he can make much more if he opts out and hits the open market.
There are plenty of teams around the league with cap space who could be interested in a player as talented as Smith, and this could cause some serious problems for New York.
On the bright side, Smith’s loyalty could come into play here. Last summer, he could have made a lot more in free agency, but instead opted out of his player option and re-signed for the maximum the Knicks could offer.
Now that he’s played two years in New York, the Knicks will be able to use the early-Bird exception on Smith.
What this means is that they can offer him a maximum of 175 percent of his current salary regardless of the cap situation, with the contract having to last a minimum of two years.
The ideal situation would be to re-sign Smith for a two-year, $10.2 million deal. He’s worth more than that, but by the time the contract is up New York will have his full Bird rights.
These are given out when a player has played at least three years with a team, and they give the team an opportunity to pay him up to his maximum salary, again regardless of the cap situation.
Smith will have played 11 years in the league by that point, making his maximum salary $19.1 million. That’s a lot more than he’ll be offered on the open market this summer.
If he signs elsewhere this summer, his new team won’t have his Bird rights in 2015, so it might actually work out a lot better for Smith financially if he stays in New York and takes a pay cut for the next two years.
He’ll make reasonable money for the next couple of seasons, and will then get his big payday when the contract is over.
Chris Copeland
Unlike most rookies, Chris Copeland isn’t tied down long-term for the Knicks, primarily because he went undrafted and spent six years in Europe before joining the team.
He’s not going to make huge money on the open market—you certainly won’t see a team using their mid-level exception on him—but if a team offers him more than the veteran’s minimum it will be tough for New York to match.
Copeland is a player that clearly has offensive talent, which makes him important to the Knicks’ bench, but also an intriguing option for other teams in the league.
Losing Copeland wouldn’t destroy the Knicks by any means, but having cheap offense off the bench is a luxury that has really helped when injuries have hit this season.
The non-Bird exception will help the Knicks out when it comes to re-signing Copeland. They have the right to offer him 120 percent of the veteran’s minimum regardless of the salary cap, which could be enough to bring him back for another year.
For Copeland, after one year of experience in the NBA, that would be a maximum of $0.9 million the Knicks can offer.
Kenyon Martin
Since coming over as a free agent at the NBA Trade Deadline, Kenyon Martin has emerged as a key part of the Knicks’ rotation, rebooting his career in the process.
His return to form has really boosted the Knicks, but when free agency comes he could suddenly become a coveted player again.
Martin had to wait until February until being signed this season, but now that he’s proved himself, another team could offer him significant money to come off the bench.
At age 35, no one’s going to offer him too much, but it’s not impossible to see someone throw him a one-year, $3 million deal based on his production this season.
Again, it will come down to the non-Bird exception for the Knicks. They’ll be able to offer $1.7 million, and will just have to hope that’s enough.
If it’s not, they will have the option to use their taxpayer’s mid-level exception to re-sign him, but in turn that will inhibit their ability to add to the team.
All salary information is from HoopsHype and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ.
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2013 NBA Free Agents San Antonio Spurs Should Be Watching Down the Stretch
The San Antonio Spurs will enter the summer with more cap flexibility than in years past, however, the extent to which they will be able to spend will rely on numerous factors.
The team’s current highest contract is that of Manu Ginobili, and while it will come off the books next year, he’ll still be due a fairly substantial amount of money.
Tiago Splitter will also demand a larger deal, and rightfully so, having played exceptionally this season. Stephen Jackson will also have the opportunity to leave San Antonio, but after proving to be a fantastic role player, the Spurs should highly consider signing the veteran forward.
Combined, these players will take up a large portion of the team’s payroll, leaving just the mid-level exception for the Spurs to use to lure free agents to San Antonio.
Whether or not these players can make an impact is another story, but with some flexibility, a new face or two in the Alamo City may be inevitable.
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6 NBA Free Agents Whom the Los Angeles Lakers Should Target This Summer
The Los Angeles Lakers are currently in a battle for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference, but that isn’t the only thing Lakers’ management is worried about.
After this season, management will face numerous tough decisions as they could potentially be looking to replace eight players from this year’s squad.
Assuming that the Lakers do re-sign Dwight Howard and Earl Clark, and that Metta World Peace doesn’t exercise his early termination option at season’s end, the Lakers will have very little money to throw at potential free agents.
With cost in mind, here are five potential free agents that the Lakers should be targeting this summer.
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