NBA Playoffs 2013: Why Chris Bosh Is the X-Factor in Heat vs. Pacers

Chris Bosh will make his presence known when the Eastern Conference Finals start Wednesday.

The member of the Miami Heat’s “Big Three” has taken on the most criticism by far from the media and fans, who claim he is soft around the rim. But after Bosh went down with an abdominal injury in Game 1 of the Heat’s Eastern Conference semi-final matchup with the Pacers in last year’s playoffs, people wondered if Miami could compete without their third star.

It took superhuman efforts by both LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to move the Heat into the Eastern Conference Finals, but this year Bosh is back and primed to contribute to Miami’s championship run.

Yes, LeBron James is the face of this team; he is the best player in the world, after all. But while he’s going to continue putting up numbers, Bosh will be the deciding factor on what the reigning NBA champions can do offensively.

The Indiana Pacers run a more traditional defense with two big men down low. While David West is the more skilled perimeter shooter, Roy Hibbert operates from the low block and isn’t afraid to muck it up trying to crash the boards.

Hibbert is a huge threat around the rim, just ask Carmelo Anthony. He leads all NBA centers this postseason in offensive rebounds (55) and offensive rebounds per game (4.6) and is first among remaining centers in blocks per game (2.5). 

Now Bosh doesn’t need to score more points in order for his team to win. His biggest contribution will come more from the perimeter and being able to drag Hibbert away from the rim.

The Pacers need Hibbert down low on defense to create shot blocking opportunities and alter opposing shot attempts. With the Heat’s style of slash-and-kick, there will be numerous chances for Hibbert to swat away shots. James, Wade, Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole can all use picks to drive to the basket, and without Bosh, Hibbert will be waiting for them.

The Heat love to play small ball on both sides of the court. They don’t have a conventional center; they use Bosh at the five while James moves down to the power forward. That way the Heat can get more athleticism on the court and can use that to create turnovers and run up and down in transition with ease.

With Bosh out there, it gives the Heat another shooter along the perimeter instead of a big center that takes up space in the middle. Bosh is more of a finesse forward that loves a mid-range jumper, like Kevin Garnett is with the Celtics.

Bosh has been a constant shooting threat in the 2013 playoffs. Even though he’s scoring 13.2 points per game, he is making the most of his chances when the ball is in his hands. Bosh is third among remaining forwards in field goal percentage (51.6), only behind Kawhi Leonard of the Spurs and LeBron.

Bosh isn’t just a hot shooter, he’s also made himself dangerous from beyond the arc. He leads all forwards this postseason in three-point accuracy, making a remarkable 46.7 percent of his shots from downtown, according to CBSSports.com.

With Bosh being such a hot shooter lately, Hibbert has to make sure he keeps his eye on him during this series. He is going to be wandering out near the three-point line, far away from where Hibbert likes to be. The 7′ 2″ center isn’t quick enough to get back and help on defense if one of the Heat slashers make a move toward the basket.

Bosh’s ability to shoot drags the opposition’s big man away from the paint, giving the Heat better scoring chances at the rim and more rebounding opportunities. If Hibbert does stay inside to help the defense, then the ball can be kicked to Bosh on the wing, leaving him wide open for a jump shot.

Chris Bosh may not have been able to play last year against the Pacers in the playoffs, but this time he comes back better than ever. Indiana has to account for Bosh on the wing, but that leaves the NBA’s MVP room to charge the rim with authority. 

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NBA Draft 2013: 1st-Round Prospects Who Helped Themselves Most at Combine

You’ll be super surprised to hear this, but people tend to overreact to the results at the NBA draft combine.

Held last week in Chicago, the two-day event puts players in a series of positional drills, scrimmages and athleticism testings that has very little correlation to NBA success. While not quite the Underwear Olympics that takes place every year in the NFL, it’s very hard for a player to come out of obscurity to wow scouts at the NBA combine. The player pool is just too small and teams have watched enough tape to know what they’re getting for the most part.

For fans, that can be frustrating. Arguably the most important aspect of the entire process—the team interviews—happens behind closed doors. So even though you’ll hear about players “impressing” certain squads in interviews, it’s impossible to know just how much tangible evidence you can take away. 

However, that’s not to say combine results are meaningless. They’re far from it. Last week’s festivities in Chicago were an opportunity for teams, scouts and analysts to start gathering a consensus. And even though many top prospects chose not to participate in the positional drills—mostly at the behest of risk-controlling agents—last week’s action still had some very good takeaways.

Namely, there were a few players who were just good enough to send their stock on the upward swing. With that in mind, here is a look at a few first-rounders who had excellent stays in Chicago.

 

Steven Adams (C, Pittsburgh)

You don’t have to look hard to find warts in Adams’ game from his one-year stop at Pittsburgh. The New Zealand-born center arrived in the States as a seven-foot mass of potential and athleticism, but with plenty of work left on, you know, playing basketball.

Averaging 7.2 points, 6.2 rebounds and two blocks a night, Adams was everything scouts thought he was and nothing more as a freshman. Those hoping to see Adams develop an offensive game other than “dunk” were sorely disappointed. He was deer-in-the-headlights scared outside the restricted area on offense and thus only received a little over 23 minutes per game.

There were a few tangible positives, most notably his rebounding and shot-blocking prowess. But as the season progressed, it was clear Adams wasn’t getting any better. He left Jamie Dixon’s stead arguably looking no better than when he arrived.

Heading into the combine, most of the focus was on Adams’ offensive game and the colorful adjectives used to describe it. None were positive and the most frequent was possibly “broken.” Seriously, Adams looked like a three-year-old playing NBA 2K13 for the first time in his worst moments. 

Well, it seems the 19-year-old has already improved more in the two months since the college basketball season ended than he did his entire time at Pitt. Adams was arguably the biggest “winner” of this year’s combine, as he confirmed all the good things about him (size, athleticism, etc.) while showing a vastly improved touch around the basket.

He measured in at a full seven feet with shoes and had 11-inch hands, which was tied for the second-widest hands of anyone at the combine. While his leaping numbers were only middle of the pack, where Adams most helped his stock was in the individual offensive drills.

Jonathan Givony of Draft Express noted how much better Adams was than most expected: 

Meanwhile, Sports Illustrated’s Chris Mannix said that NBA general managers are “tantalize[d]” by the center’s potential:

A first-round lock before heading to Chicago, there’s some real lottery buzz about Adams now. His collegiate production doesn’t justify it whatsoever—Adams’ decision to go pro seemed jarring at the time—but he’s true evidence of how much the combine can help an already-intriguing product.

If the draft were held today, don’t be surprised if he landed somewhere in the back half of the lottery. 

 

Tim Hardaway, Jr. (G, Michigan)

Adams spent his time in Chicago flashing skills few thought he had. Hardaway spent his time again flashing skills everyone already knew he had—and still amazing scouts in the process.

Overshadowed this past season by Trey Burke, Glenn Robinson III and even Mitch McGary during the tourney, Hardaway‘s NBA stock was a collective “meh” at this point a week ago. He was in no danger of going undrafted by any stretch, but was a victim of a phenomenon we see every year around draft time—scouts had seen so much of him they stopped caring. 

It’s easy to say the fans at home have inherent biases toward major conference players because they see them play on national television. But what goes unmentioned is that most teams send their top scouts to the same games the Regular Joe fan—generally because that’s where top talents will take on the best opposing competition.

Of course, I’m speaking in generalities here and NBA teams have far greater resources to scour the world for the Giannis Antetokounmpos waiting in second-division clubs overseas. Teams and scouts still in get “bored” of a player like Hardaway, simply because any average college basketball fan has a general idea of what he’s good at and what he’s not.

In a draft so filled with uncertainties, though, Hardaway came into Chicago and reinvigorated his stock simply by showing up as a better basketball player than his buzzed-about contemporaries. Hardaway was among the most comfortable shooters among 2-guards during drills, with Allen Crabbe of Cal also impressing Jonathan Givony of Draft Express:

And after performing excellently for a guard in the athleticism drills—besting similar borderline first-rounders like Reggie Bullock—Hardaway‘s name looks like it’s creeping into the first round. Seth Davis of CBS Sports “can’t think of one” reason why the former Wolverines star shouldn’t go ahead of players like Archie Goodwin, who boast a ton of untapped talent but little in the way of performance: 

I tend to agree with Davis. There’s a time to jump at the potential in Goodwin, and that’s in the second round where contracts are non-guaranteed. Hardaway solidified himself as a back-half first rounder for me in Chicago and he’d be a great fit at No. 27 for the Denver Nuggets, a team in need of some shooting. 

 

Cody Zeller (C, Indiana)

Zeller‘s performance in Chicago was a combination of a little Hardaway in reinvigorating his draft stock and a little Adams in showing off some unforeseen skills.

The former Indiana center’s stock heading into the combine was in something of a malaise. An expected top-five pick prior to the 2012-13 college basketball season, the zest had almost completely evaporated from Zeller‘s name. His overall lack of improvement from his freshman year to his sophomore year was apparent simply by looking at a stat sheet:

Year	PPG	RPG	BPG	FG%	TS%	ORtg	ORB%	USG%
2011-12 (Frosh)	16.5	8.1	1.3	56.2	62.3	119.4	12.4	26.6
2012-13 (Soph)	15.6	6.6	1.2	62.3	66.5	126.8	11.2	24.3

All advanced stats via Ken Pomeroy.

By the end of the season, it was clear that Victor Oladipo was the top NBA prospect on the Hoosiers roster. And as Zeller‘s campaign concluded with a disappearing act against Syracuse in the NCAA tournament, plenty of folks wondered whether he could even stick in the lottery.

Fast-forward to lottery selection day and Zeller is almost firmly a top-10 selection again. Though Zeller did not perform in the position drills in Chicago, he had arguably the best athletic performance of anyone—and most certainly among big men.

As Jeff Rabjohns of Peegs.com notes, Zeller had the best standing vertical, sprint and lane agility drill numbers among big men:

And Zeller’s standing vertical of 35.5″ is the best in a decade among players 6’9″ or bigger, per ESPN’s Chad Ford:

Now, these test results should come with enough grains of salt to fill a Brinks truck. The standing vert is more meaningful for big men because it helps grabbing rebounds underneath, but this is still the equivalent of vaulting an NBA player simply because he had a good 40-yard dash time. There are plenty of other factors.

Zeller deserved to be a top-10 pick based on merit before the combine. He’s always been the second-best center in this class behind Nerlens Noel, and the growing talk of him becoming a 4 at the NBA level is intriguing. If Zeller can flash some versatility and increased shot-making in individual workouts, you may see him claw his way back into the top-five discussion by mid-June. 

 

Follow Tyler Conway on Twitter: Follow @tylerconway22

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NBA Draft 2013: Safest Picks Available in First Round

Everyone wants to draft the next LeBron James, but sometimes it is better to go for a safer pick in the first round.

While this year’s class has no sure-fire superstars, there are plenty of high-upside players. Guys like Nerlens Noel and Alex Len have the potential to be All-Star centers, although they could also end up struggling immensely at the next level and being out of the league in a few years.

For some teams without a lot going for them, this is absolutely worth the risk. For others that are close to contention, it might be smarter to know what you are going to get out of a young player.

These prospects might not end up being Hall of Famers, but they are certain to be impact players in a rotation very early in their careers.

 

Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown

It seems the only thing that will hold back Otto Porter from being a true superstar is his mentality.

Last season at Georgetown, the wing proved that he can fill up the stat sheet in almost every category. He can run the offense like a point guard, rebound like a forward and shoot as well as anyone in the class. Additionally, he has great length which he uses to be an excellent on-ball defender.

Porter has the size and athleticism to enter an NBA lineup and play as well as he did in college.

The problem is that he is almost too unselfish, and will often pass up a shot when he should be the one with the ball. He was easily the best player on his team last season, but he rarely took over the game.

Still, if he goes to a team with talented players around him, he will help generate a lot of wins.

 

Mason Plumlee, C, Duke

Mason Plumlee improved a great deal in every season at Duke. By his senior year, he averaged 17.1 points and 10 rebounds per game while being a major part of a very good team.

He has excellent technique around the basket that helps him score on a consistent basis from inside of 10 feet. On defense, he is not a great shot-blocker but is always in the right spot and helps out a lot on pick and rolls.

Additionally, Plumlee is much more athletic than people give him credit for and can finish huge dunks above the rim.

The only downside is that teams do not see much room for improvement at 23 years old with a nearly finished game. General managers would rather grab a player who could be great than one they know will be good, but Plumlee will very good at the next level.

 

Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana

Calling Victor Oladipo safe will depend highly on when he is drafted and what is expected out of him.

If he is taken with one of the top-three picks to a team that expects him to be a big-time scorer, he will not reach that level. On the other hand, he is the type of player that will be around the league for a long time.

Oladipo is the best on-ball defender in this class. He has the strength, wingspan and quickness to guard multiple positions on the floor and this will make him a valuable player for a long time. 

Offensively, the Indiana player turned himself into an excellent shooter this season and proved that he has good range when he gets an open look at the basket.

While he will not be the best player on a good team, Oladipo could be similar player to Bruce Bowen and stick around for over a decade.

 

Jeff Withey, C, Kansas

There are few players in this class ready to contribute immediately as much as Jeff Withey. At about 6’11″, he has the size to play center and the skill to be a rotational player for a competitive team.

Withey is known as one of the best interior defenders in the class after finishing third in the nation in blocks per game last season. What he lacks in pure athleticism he makes up for in timing and experience inside.

The four-year player also learned to avoid foul trouble to allow him to stay in the game longer. This is not easy for a shot-blocker, but it is important for an NBA team looking for someone to help off the bench.

Although it is hard to imagine Withey lighting things up on the offensive end, his size and skill on defense should be enough to help a contending team win a championship. 

 

Follow @TheRobGoldberg

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NBA Lottery Odds 2013: Breaking Down Each Team’s Chances to Land No. 1 Pick

The 2013 NBA draft lottery will take place on Tuesday night, finally cluing in the teams participating in the event as to where and what order they will pick in come June’s draft.

It’s an exciting occasion for fans as well, as they can view the results of this drawing in multiple ways, including television and live stream fashion. Finding out whether your team landed a top pick can be quite a thrill, especially with some great players available at the top of this class.

Let’s take a look at where you can catch the lottery, what the odds are for each participant to win, some of the prized prospects waiting for the victors and more.

 

2013 NBA Draft Lottery Info

When: Tuesday, May 21, at 8:30 p.m. ET

Where: Disney/ABC’s Times Square Studios, New York City

Watch: ESPN

Live Stream: ESPN3 (Blacked out in several states, please check coverage map here)

 

Each Team’s Chance to Land Top Pick

 Odds and trade notes courtesy of USA Today.

Team	2012-13 Record	Chance of No. 1 pick
Orlando Magic	20-62	25 percent
Charlotte Bobcats	21-61	19.9 percent
Cleveland Cavaliers	24-58	15.6 percent
Phoenix Suns	25-57	11.9 percent
New Orleans Pelicans	27-55	8.8 percent
Sacramento Kings	28-54	6.3 percent
Detroit Pistons	29-53	4.3 percent
Washington Wizards	29-53	2.8 percent
Minnesota Timberwolves	31-51	1.7 percent
Portland Trail Blazers*	33-49	1.1 percent
Philadelphia 76ers	34-48	0.8 percent
Toronto Raptors**	34-48	0.7 percent
Dallas Mavericks	41-41	0.6 percent
Utah Jazz	43-39	0.5 percent

*If Portland’s pick falls outside of the top 12, it will be sent to Charlotte.

**If Toronto’s pick falls outside of the top three, it will be sent to the Oklahoma City Thunder via the Houston Rockets.

 

Potential No. 1 Picks

Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky

Despite an injury that may keep him sidelined through Christmas, Noel is the closest thing to a consensus top pick this class has to offer.

The Wildcats’ big man is a shot-blocking phenom that already brings plenty to the table and has the potential to add much more to his game in the near future.

Noel is extremely athletic and uses his great leaping ability to sky for rebounds on both ends of the floor. He utilizes big, quick hands to come up with steals in the low post and isn’t afraid to provide quick help on a defensive rotation.

He has two major areas of concern, though, as Noel only weighed in at 206 pounds at the combine. That’s painfully thin for a power forward prospect, let alone a center—which is the position the UK star has been listed at.

Noel is also extremely raw offensively, although his high ceiling, athleticism and non-stop motor should help him to improve rapidly in that department.

While he’s not an immediate game-changer, some work in an NBA weight room, a new diet and a lot of time in the gym will turn Noel into a starting-caliber big man that helps a contending team for years to come.

 

Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana

Oladipo is an intriguing prospect that is generating small but significant buzz as a potential top pick in the draft.

ESPN’s Chad Ford is reporting (behind Insider pay wall) that the Hoosiers star did well for himself at the combine in Chicago, measuring out better than expected, performing well during the interview process and blowing away observers with his athletic abilities.

A number of anonymous general managers commented that Oladipo is their favorite player and has the most upside, but none committed to having him as their No. 1 prospect on the big board.

Regardless, much could change in the next five weeks.

This young man’s defensive mindset and ability to impact a game in a positive manner without the ball in his hands are two things most teams in the lottery are looking for.

Add in the fact that he’s a freakish athlete that can knock down open shots with ease and you are looking at a complete 2-guard in the modern NBA.

 

Trey Burke, PG, Michigan

The Wolverines point guard led his team on a magical run to the national championship game, but fell just short on the biggest stage.

Regardless, the sophomore phenom is ready to take the next step and join the Association. Burke not only thinks he’s capable, but also should in fact be made the No. 1 pick come June.

As per Ford, Burke said:

I feel like I can be [the No. 1 pick], absolutely. It depends on where the [lottery] balls drop, and depending on that team’s needs, I definitely feel like I can, and I won’t disappoint.

Burke may not be the most athletic or absurdly sized for the position, but he’s a proven winner that has plenty of intangibles that scouts have a hard time putting into concrete terms.

Regardless, shrewd GMs will see the value and upside in having this young man on their roster, and one many even make him the top pick in the 2013 NBA draft.

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NBA Draft 2013: Under-the-Radar Prospects That Will Sneak into First Round

The 2013 NBA draft is inching closer and closer, with Tuesday evening’s lottery one of the last major steps prior to the big event.

While the lottery is certainly an important date for many prospects and franchises, it’s likely not going to have a real impact on whether or not many of the fringe first-round picks in this class receive a guaranteed contract or fall into the second.

These young men are going to have to continue impressing suitors via workouts and interviews over the next few weeks, as that is the best way to bolster draft stock now that the scouting combine is in the rearview.

With the way things are currently going, a handful of solid players have separated from the pack, look to be off the bubble and now locks for the first round.

Let’s take a look a closer look at these fast-rising prospects.

 

Tony Snell, SG/SF, New Mexico

Snell shocked Lobos fans when he announced he wouldn’t return for his senior season, instead opting to start his NBA career early.

Initially it seemed that the swingman was making a mistake and wouldn’t even have a chance to crack the first round come June, but all signs are pointing towards him coming off the board in the early-to-late twenties.

At the combine, Snell wowed onlookers with his measurements and athleticism, proving that he has the prototypical size and raw skills to compete in the Association.

His scoring touch was a bit inconsistent in college, but Snell’s streaky touch allows him to quickly rain buckets down on the opposition—when he’s feeling it.

He certainly was during the Mountain West Conference tourney, as the guard/forward went 10-15 from three-point land in the final two games and secured a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament for New Mexico.

Snell then went 4-of-12 against Harvard and his team was upset by the underdog, proving that he has a long way to go in terms of consistency.

Regardless, expect a team in the late-first to take a chance on this athletic young man with plenty of upside.

 

Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Michigan

While some of his teammates decided to return to Michigan for another run at a national title, Tim Hardaway Jr. elected to hire an agent and turn pro after his excellent junior campaign.

The sweet-shooting Wolverines guard has been on the fence—as either a late first-round selection or early second-pick—for months now, but when push comes to shove, it’s hard to see approximately 30 general managers passing on this kid.

He’s simply too skilled from beyond the arc, while also possessing the size and athleticism required to defend the position at the next level.

These “three-and-D” off-guards are a rarity in the NBA, but an absolute must-have for any contender looking to dethrone the Miami Heat and win a title.

Even if Hardaway Jr. has some work to put in on his handle and much to learn about shot selection, there’s nothing that a good coach with contending squad picking at the end of the first-round can’t teach.

This long-range gunner is likely coming off the board in the late-teens to mid-20’s.

 

C.J. Leslie, SF, NC State

As the Wolfpack disappointed during the 2012-13 campaign, Leslie’s stock dipped, from potential lottery selection to consensus second-rounder.

However, the lengthy forward is climbing back up and is now generating some buzz as a potential selection worthy of a first-rounder this June.

He’s a freakish athlete that measured in at 6’7.5”, ran a 3.14-second 3/4 court sprint, blitzed through the underrated lane agility drill in a 2013-best 10.19 seconds and showed an eye-popping max vertical leap of 40.5”.

Those are wild numbers and prove that Leslie could carve out a niche in the NBA solely based on his physical abilities. He could become a terrific shut down defender that could guard anyone out on the perimeter with his length and wingspan.

If he’s able to show a bit more on the offensive end during private workouts, don’t be surprised if this prospect is selected in the mid-to-late 20’s.

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7 NBA Teams Primed to Land a Star in 2013 NBA Offseason

Come July 1, 2013, at least two franchise-changing NBA players will hit the market as unrestricted free agents.

Chris Paul and Dwight Howard may end up re-signing with their respective Los Angeles franchises, but nearly one-third of the league’s teams are positioned to woo them away.

For the teams that miss out on Dwight and CP3 in free agency, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, David West and Brandon Jennings remain as potential impact additions, among other big names. 

Some teams will assuredly preserve their cap space with an eye toward the summer of 2014, where LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony and Kobe Bryant could all reach free agency. That may turn the free-agent class of 2013 into the calm before the storm, contractually speaking.

But some teams, with nearly $30 million in potential cap space available this summer, won’t have a choice other than to spend some of that money on free agents.

Based on projected cap space available, seven teams stand out as the major non-Los Angeles threats to land a star 2013 free agent.

Note: All player and team salary information comes from either Basketball-Reference or HoopsHype, unless noted otherwise. All projected cap space calculations are my own and assume a $60 million salary cap for the 2013-14 season.

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Analyzing the Chicago Bulls’ 2013 NBA Draft Needs

The Chicago Bulls are either an ideal landing spot for 2013 NBA draft prospects or a nightmarish destination to begin one’s pro career.

On the one hand, joining Chicago means becoming a part of one of the league’s most proud franchises and a club that’s still just scratching the surface of its potential. The Bulls just won 45 regular-season games without Derrick Rose and should be clawing their way back to the league’s elite ranks.

On the other hand, a playoff-proven rotation isn’t always the easiest to crack for a rookie. And Tom Thibodeau‘s rotation runs thinner than most, as Chicago reserves logged the third-fewest minutes in the league this season (14.4 via HoopsStats.com).

System and opportunity are two of the most oft-cited factors in determining a rookie’s effective transition to the realm of the professional sports world. So before any potential pick can take an optimistic or pessimistic view of Chicago as a future surrounding, the onus is on the Bulls’ brass to identify draft targets who fit Thibodeau‘s system and will have the opportunity to maximize their potential.

But before even identifying any potential draft targets, the Bulls must first target areas of need on their current roster.

Chicago is clearly lacking in two areas as currently constructed: low-post scoring and perimeter shooting.

The Bulls averaged 36.7 points in the paint this season (19th in the league) and converted just 46.8 percent of their chances there (24th, via HoopsStats.com).

The return of slasher extraordinaire Rose would figure to bolster these numbers, but perhaps not as much as one would think.

Nate Robinson, who saw the lion’s share of Rose’s minutes this season but could become a free-agent casualty this summer, had more than one-third of his made field goals coming from within the paint. Backcourt mate Jimmy Butler found more than 60 percent of his field goals there (via NBA.com/stats).

Chicago’s lack of interior scoring is the root of this problem.

Veteran Carlos Boozer prefers to do most of his damage from midrange; more than half of his field-goal attempts came at least eight feet from the basket. Joakim Noah does more of his damage near the basket, but his scoring (11.9 points per game) often takes a backseat to his defense (11.1 boards, 2.1 blocks) and shot creation (4.0 assists).

On the perimeter, the Bulls were more selective in their chances, and for good reason.

At 35.3 percent, Chicago tied the Portland Trail Blazers for the 20th-best three-point success rate in the league (via ESPN.com). Never a team to defeat itself, the Bulls attempted the second-fewest long-range shots in the NBA, 15.4 per game.

Whatever sharpshooting threat the Bulls enjoyed this season, it could be growing even less intimidating in 2013-14. Of the six Chicago marksmen to shoot above 30 percent from deep this year, half are now free agents (Robinson, Marco Belinelli and Richard Hamilton, via HoopsWorld.com).

Hamilton’s departure has seemed a formality since the veteran had all but disappeared from Thibodeau‘s rotation. Comcast SportsNet’s Aggrey Sam says it’s unlikely that Robinson will return to a crowded Chicago backcourt.

Of course, that’s the easy part of the tasks that lie ahead for GM Gar Forman. Now it’s his job to find players meeting the athletic profile to fill one of those needs.

It won’t be easy. Forman‘s draft arsenal runs two picks deep, the 20th pick of the first round and the 19th selection of the second (49th overall). And multiple analysts rate this draft class as being historically weak.

But that isn’t to say that Forman is completely without options.

Using DraftExpress.com’s mock draft board to whittle down the field takes potential interior additions Steven Adams (Pittsburgh) and Gorgui Dieng out of the running.

If Forman‘s willing to wait for his return (as he was when he traded up to land stretch forward Nikola Mirotic in 2011), he may be tempted to grab Brazilian big man Lucas Nogueira, a raw 20-year-old prospect packed with potential for the right, patient franchise. Mouhammadou Jaiteh, a 6’11″ 18-year-old, offers similar promise but is likely a few more years away from contributing.

For a more instant return, Forman might consider Kansas center Jeff Withey or Bucknell’s big man Mike Muscala. Withey fits the defensive profile to see the floor under Thibodeau (3.9 blocks per game as a senior, via StatSheet.com), but often finds his offense either off timely feeds or cleaning the glass. Muscala has both solid footwork and a soft shooting touch in his offensive arsenal, but could stand to add bulk to his 6’11″, 230-pound frame.

If Forman‘s not convinced the low-post prospects are worth the investment, he has a few perimeter targets to mull over.

San Diego State’s Jamaal Franklin may be Thibodeau‘s pick, thanks to his versatile skill set and nonstop motor. But just a 27.2 percent three-point shooter as a junior, he doesn’t project to strengthen Chicago’s perimeter attack. Michigan’s Tim Hardaway, Jr. could be their three-point threat (34.2 percent for his Wolverines’ career), but appeared to give inconsistent efforts defensively.

Allen Crabbe of California is another strong shooter, but needs work in developing his handles and could stand to add strength. South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters is a prolific scorer (22.6 points per game) and shooter (38.0 three-point percentage, via DraftExpress.com), but scouts have serious concern with his level of competition and athleticism.

Providence freshman Ricky Ledo is an intriguing talent, but a prototypical boom-or-bust candidate. A top-20 recruit, academic issues kept Ledo from ever suiting up for the Friars, and scouts have reportedly questioned his ability to be a good teammate (via Gary Parrish of CBSSports.com).

Weak drafts, not surprisingly, typically fall short in the stardom department but sometimes bode well for teams operating out of later draft slots.

The Bulls aren’t in need of a superstar to push them over the top, but do need to find something of value with that first-round selection.

Forman has some options, but he’ll need to do his homework to identify talent among a crop of players rife with potential and question marks.

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2013 NBA draft lottery: Who needs to win most?

Nerlens Noel likely awaits the winner of Tuesday’s draft lottery.

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NBA Playoffs 2013: Previewing Biggest Matchups for Heat vs. Pacers

The Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers are getting ready to face off in the NBA Playoffs for the second straight year, and you can be sure it’s going to be a physical series.

Both clubs feature synergistic rosters loaded with talented players, but there’s no doubt which team has more experience in pressure situations. According to ESPN Stats & Info, only one player on the Pacers roster has ever been in a Conference Finals before this year:

Last year the Heat defeated the Pacers in six games in the Conference Semifinals, winning the first three, losing two and then closing out the series at home in Game 6.

This year, however, Indy has won two of the three head-to-head contests between these two clubs, and given the way the Pacers have played thus far in 2013 this series will be an all-out battle.

Here is a sneak peek at the biggest matchups in this series, which begins on Wednesday, May 22, at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

 

Paul George vs. LeBron James

It’s going to be seriously fun watching these two players go mano-a-mano for potentially seven games.

Nobody can match what James does overall for the Heat, but George has been nearly as brilliant an all-around player as King James during these postseason games.

In 12 games during the playoffs, George is averaging 19.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, five assists, 1.8 steals and 0.6 blocks per game. In every category besides blocks he’s putting up better numbers than he did during the regular season.

George matches up well with James from a size perspective, which is hard to do. Granted, James has at least 30 pounds on him, but George has the athleticism and speed to give him a hard time on defense.

The last time these two players met on the court was in mid-March. They canceled each other out, essentially, as James scored just 13 points and George scored 10. 

If George can somehow harass James into making some bad shots or turnovers, Indiana has a chance to pull off a huge upset.

 

Roy Hibbert vs. Chris Bosh

These two players feature contrasting styles and strengths, and watching them attempt to counter one another’s strong points will be fascinating. 

Bosh is a highly skilled big man who is just as capable of hitting 18-foot jumpers as he is maneuvering for shots in the paint. His length and skill inside makes him an adept shot-blocker, but he’ll be going up against a strong opponent inside against Hibbert.

Hibbert is much more of a natural banger, and his shot-blocking presence inside will certainly be a huge factor in this series. He averaged 3.2 blocks per game against the New York Knicks and will challenge James and the other Heat players every chance he gets.

Bosh will struggle to box out Hibbert down low, but Hibbert will struggle to keep up with Bosh on the perimeter—especially in pick-and-roll situations.

If Hibbert manages to disrupt Bosh’s shooting touch, however, he’ll take away the second-leading scorer on Miami’s roster during the playoffs.

Should Bosh somehow keep Hibbert from owning the glass, it’ll turn into more fast-break points for the Heat.

 

George Hill vs. Miami’s Backcourt

Hill will be matched up with different Heat guards throughout the series.

Mario Chalmers will really struggle to contend with Hill’s quickness and speed, as will Dwayne Wade on his gimpy knee. 

Hill can break defenses down by penetrating into the paint, where he can either finish with authority or find an open teammate for an uncontested jumper.

His biggest strengths, however, can be found on the defensive side of the ball, where Hill’s long arms and athleticism allow him to wreak havoc on opposing shooters.

Second-year point guard Norris Cole might see a heavy dose of Hill in this upcoming series, as he has the size and athleticism necessary to defend the gifted player.

In all reality, however, the Heat will be throwing the kitchen sink at Hill to see what works, just as the Pacers will do to James on the other side.

 

Follow me on Twitter @JesseReed78

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2013 NBA Draft Breakdown and Scouting Report For Louisville’s Peyton Siva

After leading Louisville to a Final Four as a junior and a national title as a senior, Peyton Siva will be looking to convince scouts his college success can translate.

However, Siva will encounter some towering obstacles on his road to the NBA.

There are plenty of skeptics, myself included, who question Siva’s game with regard to making the transition. He’ll have a chance to silence the critics during workouts and prove his size and perimeter stroke won’t restrict him at the next level.

 

Physical Tools

Siva actually surprised at the NBA combine, measuring in at a solid 6’1” in sneakers. This was great news for Siva, as it eliminates a potential red flag on his résumé (some believed he was under 6’0”).

He also shined during the athletic testing, getting off the ground for a strong 41.5” max vertical leap and finishing just a hair behind Shane Larkin as the second-fastest prospect in the field.

His quickness is big part of his game, as Siva uses it to break down defenses in the half court and quickly get out in transition. He’s an awesome athlete who could have probably excelled at whatever sport he chose to play.

Siva has left scouts with fewer questions to ask regarding the physical transition, and can now focus on proving he’s got the talent to crack an NBA rotation.

 

Off the Dribble

Siva has a quick first step and good stop-to-start acceleration. He makes it tough for defenders to stay in front of him.

With the game slowed down, Siva is always a threat to break his man down off the dribble and penetrate the heart of the defense.

Watch him burn his defender with the crossover, hit the gap and finish acrobatically thanks to his top-shelf athleticism:

 

Finishing at the Rim

Siva has the flexibility, dexterity and athleticism that allow him to finish acrobatically in traffic. He’s not the tallest or the longest, but Siva’s ability to adjust to the challenge mid-air helps make up for a lack of size and length.

Check out Siva beat his man and both help-defenders before finishing around the rim protector:

 

Change of Direction

Given Siva’s handle, shiftiness and quickness, he’s capable of hitting the tiniest gaps before weaving through the defense. The ability to change directions on the dime makes him a nightmare to defend on ball screens, as he tends to turn defenders around while he navigates through traffic.

Watch how Siva goes “human joystick” on Connecticut, dribbling east, west, north to northeast on his way for an easy two:

 

Drive and Dish

Siva’s ability to beat his man and break down the defense opens up all sorts of opportunities for his teammates, which is what drives his value as a prospect. Nobody is expecting him to score at the pro level. His responsibilities will include pushing the tempo and creating in the half court.

His dribble penetration gets big men easy buckets and shooters open looks:

 

Weaknesses, Obstacles

Siva’s most glowing weakness and obstacle moving forward is his jump shot. He’s shot below 29 percent from downtown in three consecutive years. This is a red flag.

He seemed to gain more confidence his senior year, taking 132 threes compared to the 69 he took as a junior, but he didn’t show much improvement.

Without a threatening three-ball, Siva is going to allow NBA defenders to take away his strength (dribble penetration) by stepping back and playing off him. If he can’t make them pay, he’ll have a tough time cracking a rotation.

Siva struggles to create easy shots for himself in the half court. If he’s not able to carve through the defense for a layup, he’s either taking a three out of his range or a runner off one foot. He’s now shot 40 percent from the floor in back-to-back years with only a career-high average of 10 points per game.

If Siva can polish up his jumper off the dribble, he’ll become a much bigger threat with the ball in his hands.

 

Draft Breakdown and NBA Outlook

Siva will be fighting for a spot in the second round and will be competing with other point guards like Missouri’s Phil Pressey, Baylor’s Pierre Jackson and Detroit’s Ray McCallum.

The good news going in is that every scout has seen Siva excel on the brightest of stages at the highest possible level. He’s been the floor general and motor for one of the best teams in the country over the past two years.

As an NBA prospect, Siva projects as a change-of-pace guard off the bench who can push the ball in an attempt to get his team easy baskets. Hopefully for him, coaches won’t feel a messy jumper will prevent him from providing that spark.

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